1 – Jimmy Graham – Once again, Graham leads the pack at TE by a sizable margin. We feel that taking Graham with an early pick will yield results that cannot be matched due to the lack of both quality and depth at the TE position. By drafting Graham, his numbers will ultimately double any mid-tier TE and your team will perform as if having a bonus weekly option in your lineup. The depth at QB and WR this season is sizable. It’s not the popular pick, but drafting Graham early is one we like after grabbing a solid RB.
2 – Julius Thomas – Orange Julius has certainly not rested on his laurels as he consistently worked this off-season with future Hall of Fame TE – Tony Gonzalez. Thomas ended 2013 with 788 Receiving Yards and 12 TDs and is expecting to be used much more creatively in his Sophomore Season . Thomas said, “I think there are a lot of things that our offense wanted to do with me, but you can only learn so much in one year.” If you miss on Jimmy Graham, Thomas is the obvious replacement and should be snatched up relatively early before the cliff of a tier rapidly approaches. In our opinion, Thomas is the final “lock it up” option at the TE position.
3 – Rob Gronkowski – Gronk recently told reporters that he will not change his playing style based on past injuries. He has had eight known surgeries in his career and missed 14 regular season games over the last two seasons. His upside is daunting, but proceed with caution as the injury bug will more than likely hit him once again. Gronk has gone for double digit TDs in each NFL season but one (2010 – 10 TDs, 2011 – 18 TDs, 2012 – 11 TDs, 2013 – 5 TDs). If you make this pick, hedge your bets and roster an additional solid TE to protect yourself.
4 – Jordan Cameron – The loss of both Norv Turner and Chudzinski is a killer for Jordan Cameron as their offense led the NFL with 681 pass attempts last season. With Miles Austin set to become the WR1 in Cleveland, Jordan Cameron is by far the best receiving option in a weak Josh Gordonless Offense. We’re expecting Cameron’s 917 yard/7 TD 2013 performance to be even better in 2014, even in their Run Heavy Offense. Cameron ends the guaranteed weekly fantasy production tier for Tight Ends. View our full analysis on Camerons 2014 Outlook and how TE’s performed under Kyle Shanahan’s tenure at Offensive Coordinator HERE.
5 – Jason Witten – You know what you’re getting when you draft Jason Witten. With Scott Linehan in Dallas, they’re incorporating a pass heavy scheme. The Cowboys Defense keeps getting worse as the season nears, so you can expect Dallas to remain in a lot of shootouts this season. The 32 year old isn’t the sexy pick he used to be, but he’s still got a little left in his tank.
6 – Greg Olsen – Olsen’s 2012 and 2013 seasons mimic themselves in nearly every category and differ by only 4 Receptions, 1 TD and 27 Receiving Yards. The consistency will continue forward in 2014 and we feel that Olsen’s numbers will only increase in every category as the Carolina Options are limited for Cam Newton. Olsen rarely has a monster performance that wins games for Fantasy Owners, however he also doesn’t produce goose-eggs that lose games either. For example, Olsen didn’t notch a single game last season over 90 Receiving Yards. Olsen was Targeted 111 times last year and yielded 73 Receptions with a Reception Rate of 65%. In 2012, Olsen saw almost identical numbers as he snatched 69 Receptions on 104 Targets with a 66% Reception Rate. We expect Olsen’s Targets to jump to the 120 range. With a consistent Reception Rate, look for Olsen to grab 79-80 Receptions in 2014. Olsen has averaged 12.21 YPC in 2012 and 11.17 YPC in 2013. We expect Olsen to jump to nearly 925 Receiving Yards in 2014 with an uptick in TD Numbers as well. He is a consistent option that has the ability to finish higher than his current Legion Report Ranking.
7 – Vernon Davis – Are you YEARNIN’ for VERNON? VD-Boy molli-wopped his way thru 2013, grabbing 13 TDs and 850 Receiving Yards. Davis only went 4 Games last season without scoring a TD. The San Francisco Chronicle recently reported that since 2011, the 49ers have not ranked any higher than 31st in the NFL in Passing Attempts. Additionally, Offensive Coordinator Greg Roman expressed that they could stray away a bit from their ground-pounding roots. Davis caught 52 Receptions last year, which accounted for 21% of Colin Kaepernick‘s 243 Completions. The idea that Davis will repeat at 13 TDs is a pipe-dream. Add a healthy Michael Crabtree and Anquan Boldin, Stevie Johnson and Brandon Lloyd into the mix and we see an obvious reduction in production. Follow the alliteration when thinking Davis in 2014. Yearnin’ for Vernon = Reduction in Production!
8 – Jordan Reed – Reed missed the final 6 games in his rookie campaign last season due to a season ending concussion, but says “I don’t think it’s something I’ll be dealing with my whole career,” he continues “[they were a] fluke thing.” “I don’t think it’ll happen again,” claims Reed, who also suffered 2 concussions while playing as a Florida Gator. Playing as a rookie in the Shanahan’s Run Scheme, Reed was on pace for 80 catches for 888 yards and 6 TD’s before ending his season short. The soft handed 6’3 Tight End possesses huge potential in Jay Gruden’s new Pass Happy Scheme in Washington by dominating the middle of the field while playing a role similar to Ex-Patriots TE Aaron Hernandez. Reed will remain a Top Red Zone Target with Garcon 6’0, Jackson 5’10 and Roberts 5’11. Reed possesses huge upside, but the injuries are a major concern when drafting this Tight End.
9 – Dennis Pitta – Returning from a dislocated hip injury, Pitta is now 100% healthy in Gary Kubiak’s TE Friendly Offense. The past 5 season under Gary Kubiak, Tight Ends for the Houston Texans combined to average 86 catches, 1020 receiving yards and 7 TD’s per season. With this, they were also fighting for Targets with the commanding Andre Johnson as well as RB’s Steve Slaton and Arian Foster (RB’s who catch a lot of balls, similarly to Ray Rice.) Pitta is better than the Tight Ends Kubiak worked with in Houston and Torrey Smith is nowhere near as commanding for Targets as Andre Johnson is. Kubiak envisions Pitta to have a versatile role that will move Pitta all around the field in their new offense. “I have done a lot of different things in this offense already,” Pitta told the Baltimore Sun. Pitta will be highly utilized in this Ravens Offense and has the potential to lead this team in receptions in 2014. Pitta possesses TE1 value, especially in PPR Leagues.
10 – Kyle Rudolph – Everything you read on Kyle Rudolph right now is flooded with why Norv Turner will be the reason for his 2014 breakout season. It elaborates on how Turner relies heavily on Tight Ends by explaining his production with Tight Ends throughout his coaching career. In 1992, Dallas Cowboys TE, Jay Novacek caught 68 balls for 630 yards and 6 TD’s. Since that time, no other Tight End under Norv Turner’s Head Coaching/Offensive Coordinating career has a Tight End caught for more than 600 yards, until 2007’s Antonio Gates! Turner entered San Diego in Gates’ 4th season in the NFL, where he was coming off 3 consecutive seasons for 900+ yards. Norv Turner didn’t exactly mold Gates into one of the best Tight Ends in Fantasy Football History, rather he rode his hot streak. The same goes with Jordan Cameron. The Browns Tight End was poised for a breakout season being the number 2 receiving option on a team that threw the ball a league leading 681 times! We like Kyle Rudolph as a breakout candidate because of the situation he’s in. The acquisition of Norv Turner does absolutely nothing for us. Rudolph will be the Safety Valve for Rookie QB – Teddy Bridgewater. He’s an exceptional pass catcher and compliment to the raw Cordarrelle Patterson. Standing at 6’6/260, he’s a way sexier Red Zone Threat compared to the 5’11 aging 30 year old, Greg Jennings. Because of all of this, Rudolph has a great chance to lead this 2014 Vikings team in Receptions.
12 – Martellus Bennett – Maybe he gave himself the nickname of “The Black Unicorn” for a future WWF Position. See the video below as Martellus Bennett slams Rookie – Kyle Fuller in practice.
[youtube id=”5Mj8BRlOWr4″]
11 – Zach Ertz – Eagles beat writer Sheil Kapadia says Ertz is “going to be the most utilized pass-catching weapon the Eagles have in the red zone,” for the 2014 season. Kapadia goes on to note that he “attacks the ball in the air, can box defenders out and is a precise route-runner.” At 6’5/250 the Tight End will be a nightmare for defenses to guard this season, creating weekly mismatches. Ertz ended the season with decent production catching 25 balls for 290 yards and 5 TDs in the final 9 games, including playoffs. The 2nd year TE will be heavily involved in this years Eagles Offense and is considered a low end TE1/high end TE2.
12 – Heath Miller – With the departure of Emmanuel Sanders and Jericho Cotchery, Miller will remain the number 2 receiving option in Big Ben’s hurry-up Pittsburgh offense this season. Miller returned very early last year (Week 3) from his 2013 triple-knee ligament tear and produced 58 catches for 593 yards and 1 TD. With brand new WR’s in the disappointing veteran, Lance Moore, and the relatively unknown Sophomore WR, Markus Wheaton, Miller provides low end TE1/High end TE 2 upside. Miller, standing at 6’5, should be a major Red Zone Threat this season with Antonio Brown standing at 5’10, Markus Wheaton 5’11 and Lance Moore 5’10. Double digit TDs for the first time in the 31 year old Tight Ends career is definitely not out of the picture.
13 – Antonio Gates – There are a couple things that pop out to us when analyzing Antonio Gates for 2014 …
Number 1: Head Coach – Mike McCoy transitioned the offense from a quick-hitting passing attack to a more heavy run offense, as Rivers threw for 30+ Passing Attempts only once in the final six games of the season.
Number 2: Ladarius Green – See below 2 inches. Green played on 59.7% of the Chargers’ offensive snaps over the final 7 games of last year, but stayed in to block 60.5% of the time. The Chargers continuously report that Green is taking more steps in his developmental process and will be a larger part of the offense in 2014.
Number 3: Over the final 8 Games in 2013, Gates averaged 3.6 Receptions Per Game. As the season wore on, Gates’ production dwindled to dismal levels than that of where he was to begin the season.
Ultimately: Due to the run heavy offense, consistent injury history, position competition within San Diego, age and dwindling production – we view Gates as a solid back-up TE for fantasy managers in 2014.
14 – Ladarius Green – Recruited out of high school for both Football and Basketball, the 6’6′ 24 year old has blazing speed, clocking a 4.53 time at the 2012 NFL Combine. The soft-handed Tight End was limited to playing time last season with Antonio Gates in the way, which resulted in only 17 Receptions on 29 Targets. If Green is able to establish himself as Rivers’ number 2 passing option to Keenan Allen, he possesses the potential to become a Top 5 Fantasy Football TE. When drafting Green, draft him as your TE2 as Gates is still in his way in a Run Heavy Offense.
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To catch up on some of our previous Fantasy Football Articles, check out:
2014 WR Rankings Part 2
2014 WR Rankings Part 3
Emerging Fantasy Football Stars