Contents
- THE PROBLEM
- THE SOLUTION
- THE SYSTEM
- 2014 ALL-CONSISTENCY QUARTERBACKS
- NOT QUITE RIPE YET
- ELITE BACKUPS
THE PROBLEM
I just want to make the playoffs again. Over the past four years of my admittedly short career as a Fantasy Football Manager, I’ve been both mystified and hopelessly frustrated by the undeniable amount of “luck” involved with the sport (yes, I called it a sport). I’ve spent endless hours consuming content from energetic experts on the Internet, television, and radio to no avail. I’ve also had some great drafts according to ESPN, yet I keep coming up short when it counts. My passion is waning, so I’m heading in a new direction. I’m done with the one-year wonders and inconsistent veterans. I believe Fantasy Championships are won with consistency. It’s time for change.
THE SOLUTION
Create a list of players who — first and foremost — are CONSISTENT, and then draft the best players from that list. It’s not rocket science. How does a player earn the trust of his peers in real life? By finding success day in and day out, that’s how! So, this season, I’m ditching all the speculation — all the could-be sleepers — and I’m relying on numbers alone. Let’s find a way to uncover the sure bets in this high-risk casino known as The National Football League.
THE SYSTEM
I wanted to find the most consistent players in the league, and draft the top performers from that list. Although there are many metrics to choose from, I’m only interested in one thing – FANTASY POINTS. So, I dug up the Standard-Scoring Fantasy Point Totals from the past 10 seasons (it took a long time). From there, I compiled lists of the Top 20 players at each position for every season (this also took a while). Next, I traced the histories of all active QBs and noted every season they made the Top 10 (1-10) or Top 20 (11-20). From there, I ignored all other input and made my list based upon these findings.
The Fine Print: I chose to ignore any early seasons when a player was riding the bench, waiting for his chance to start. I also ignored second-year players, because one good year is not evidence of consistency. I mostly ignored players with a recent injury, unless they’ve shown incredible consistency in the past. When I created per-season stat averages, I left any injury-ridden seasons out of the number crunching.
Over the next week, we will create the 2014 All-Consistency Team and find out how it fares against the more flashy prospects that might be available.
First up, QUARTERBACKS.
2014 ALL-CONSISTENCY QUARTERBACKS
(These guys are guaranteed money in the bank.)
1. DREW BREES
10 Seasons – 10/10 years in the Top 10
Avg. rank 3.9th place
Season Averages : 295 FPTS – 4,517.5 PYDS, 33.1 PTD, 1.1 RuTD, 14.4 INT
While it’s not surprising to see him near the top of a list, I have to admit – I had no idea that Drew Brees would reign as King of Consistency. He is the only active quarterback to both stay healthy AND maintain a top 10 ranking for the past 10 years straight. Bravo to this New Orleans Saint. You are everything this list was created to find. Want a guaranteed Top 5 quarterback? Life’s a breeze with Drew at the helm.
2. PEYTON MANNING
9 Seasons – 9/9 years in the Top 10
1 INJ season (16 games missed)
Avg. rank 3.8th place
Season Averages : 301 FPTS – 4,453.2 PYDS, 36 PTD, 1 RuTD, 12.1 INT
If it weren’t for “The Dark Season,” Peyton would have topped our list. He’ll probably end up higher than Brees this season, but we can’t ignore Peyton’s surgery. Even so, 36 PASSING TOUCHDOWNS PER SEASON?! Ridiculous. And with two years under his belt since returning from injury, we aren’t afraid of any lingering health issues. Averaging 3.8th place amongst QBs for 9 season is ridiculous. He’s a lock.
3. AARON RODGERS
5 Seasons – 5/5 years in the Top 10
1 INJ season (7 games missed)
Avg. rank 1.4th place
Season Averages : 332 FPTS – 4.266.4 PYDS, 34 PTD, 3.6 RuTD, 9 INT
Okay, this one was tough. Coming off a shaky 2013 with his unfortunate injury, I was hesitant to place him so high. However, seeing as he’s never been out of the top TWO for his 5 full seasons, I could’ve been even more generous. 332 Fantasy Points per season tops all other QBs by over 30 points – or 10% (I just did that math in my head!). Plus, he missed 7 games last year and still almost cracked the Top 20. I’m trying to avoid mentioning speculatory (not a word) facts like “the Packers’ schedule is weak” and “he’ll be back with a vengeance” because I’m trying to stick to my stats-only guns here.
4. TOM BRADY
9 Seasons – 7/9 years in the Top 10, 2 years Top 20
1 INJ season (15 games missed)
Avg. rank 6th place
Season Averages : 291 FPTS – 4,315.6 PYDS, 32.2 PTD, 1.3 RuTD, 10.7 INT
Suffering a single-season injury, Tom Brady is Peyton Manning’s slightly-less-impressive twin. If you don’t count his 2006 ranking of 11th, he has been in the Top 10 every year except last season. He’s a fierce competitor whose average fantasy points are on par with the rest of the men on the list above him. However, I’m allowing myself to be a little concerned about last year’s 15th place ranking. It’s slightly worrisome, but even a 16-game 15th place finish is going to make him a solid, consistent choice.
5. TONY ROMO
6 Seasons – 5/6 years in the Top 10, 1 yr Top 20
1 INJ season (10 games missed)
Avg. rank 7.3rd place
Season Averages : 270 FPTS – 4,176.2 PYDS, 29.7 PTD, .83 RuTD, 13.5 INT
Tony Romo takes a lot of heat for being unreliable in the clutch. When he’s playing great, everyone is waiting for him to make a mistake – and he usually does. But that’s real life, and this is fantasy. Sure, his last second interception may have lost your weekly matchup, but he’s delivered a Top 10 season in 5 of the last 6 years. Odds are, you’re really lacking at another position. Don’t blame it on Tony’s real-life woes. He’s a steady stream of big-picture fantasy success.
6. PHILIP RIVERS
8 Seasons – 6/8 years in the Top 10, 2 yrs Top 20
Avg. rank 9th place
Season Averages : 246 FPTS – 4,027.6 PYDS, 27.5 PTD, .43 RuTD 12.9 INT
Perhaps the greatest surprise on this list is Philip Rivers. Maybe it’s because I personally place him in a category with Jay Cutler as one of the biggest tools of the NFL, but this dude can ball! While he isn’t on par with a Brees/Manning/Rodgers/Brady, he is the next best thing – AND he’s consistent. In all but 2 of the last 8 seasons, Phil has been in the Top 10 among fantasy QBs, with an average rank of 9th AND he’s never missed a season. If you can get him in a later round, focus on grabbing higher-valued players at RB and/or WR and be confident that you’re going to have a full season of solid scoring at QB. Oh, and did I mention he’s NEVER MISSED A SEASON? You’re welcome.
7. MATT RYAN
6 Seasons – 3/6 years in the Top 10, 3 yrs Top 20
Avg. rank 11.7th place
Season Averages : 242 FPTS – 3,912 PYDS, 25.5 PTD, .83 RuTD, 12.8 INT
Matty Ice has 6 seasons under his belt, and can be considered on the same level as Phil Rivers as far as quality with consistency is concerned. All 6 seasons in the Top 20 with 3 of those years in the Top 10 – not too shabby. With his average rank for the past 6 years just shy of the Top 10, Matt Ryan is a great candidate for your sneaky and solid later-round choice. Ain’t it nice to look at numbers and ignore all other factors involved? Lock down those guaranteed points while you can!
NOT QUITE RIPE YET
( A few more years and they just might make the list.)
1. CAM NEWTON
3 seasons, ranked 4th 5th 3rd
Ignoring any and all chatter about this upcoming season, we HAVE to take note of Cam Newton’s last 3 years. Seriously, impressive. Another year or so and he will be vying for a top spot on this list. NOT a bad choice this year.
2. MATTHEW STAFFORD
3 seasons, ranked 5th 11th 7th
I was trying to decide why I was so surprised by the yearly rankings Stafford has posted and I honestly think it’s because I personally don’t like the Lions. So, ignoring my personal preference, look at his rankings and keep in mind, this dude’s tough AND talented. He’s on his way to an official placement on our “All-Consistency” Team.
3. ANDY DALTON
3 seasons, ranked 17th 12th 4th
The Red Rocket has launched himself into the upper echelon of fantasy QB stardom. With a 4th place finish last year, you can’t ignore his progression. While he doesn’t look to be cracking the Top 5 this season, Year 4 is going to be key for Andy Dalton. He has a chance to establish himself as a reliable, consistent fantasy option.
4. ANDREW LUCK
2 seasons, ranked 9th 6th
I don’t think I can overstate Andrew Luck’s potential, but we are only two years in. He’s doing amazing things on the field with very little help. But, these are all statements you could hear on Sportscenter, so I must stop myself. This is a speculation-free zone. One thing I WILL say is this; “Hey, RGIII…Rookie of the Year…WHAT NOW?!”
5. RUSSELL WILSON
2 seasons, ranked 10th 8th
I’d like to welcome Russell Wilson to the All-Consistency Team qualification period. Your numbers are certainly impressive, as was your last season in particular. While a championship ring is nice in real life, we need to win in the Fantasy world. So, I say take a risk on Russell if you must, but beware – he doesn’t have the years under his belt to help us rest easy at night.
ELITE BACKUPS
(Consistently better than mediocre.)
BEN ROETHLISBERGER
Top 20 – 8/10 seasons, Top 10 2 yrs, Avg. 13.4th place
If you’re spending 10 seasons in the Top 20 but only 2 of them in the Top 10 (and the last time was in 2009), you aren’t exactly a prime candidate for QB1. Big Ben is the type of player we’re happy to throw in while our first choice is on BYE, or if we need some sort of consistency in desperation after an unexpected injury. I’ll pass on Ben.
JOE FLACCO
Top 20 – 6/6 seasons, Avg. 16.2nd place
Much like Roethlisberger, Joe Flacco has spent each of his 6 seasons without cracking the Top 10, yet he has always managed to stay in the Top 20. Maybe he has the level of consistency you need at QB while you spend earlier picks on other positions. He’s a sure bet for 16th overall QB…
Well now, that was fun, wasn’t it? Did I miss anyone?
(I didn’t, but feel free to entertain me with your suggestions)
Oh, and in case you haven’t heard, The Tozzi Brothers of Legion Report were named 2013’s Most Accurate Experts by FantasyPros.com — ahead of all the major sports and news networks’ experts. If you need a cheat sheet for your draft, you should check our 2014 Rankings here:
Printable Cheat Sheet | Complete Rankings | QB | RB | WR | TE