Dorser The Enforcer Season Stats: 6 – 10 (60%)
Week 1 is done and over with and no one could be any happier than yours truly. After going 60% last week you could understand why I am excited to start the second week of the betting season.
WEEK 1 RECAP
I picked the Aggies to beat South Carolina just off the simple fact that they were getting double digit points. Who would have thought the outcome would be like it was? Either way, Kenny Hill put his name on the map for the country and served the old ball coach an impressive beat down. Ole Miss over Boise State was an easy bet because what happened is exactly what I had imagined. The SEC team would struggle early and wear the big defense of Boise St. down and run it up in the fourth quarter. I watched Washington State run their offense and I was surprised to see that it was absolutely miserable. I am not sold that Rutgers are as solid as they looked on last Thursday. Coach Mike Leach has a lot of things to work on for me to even think about placing any money on them.
I was under the impression that anyone who plays quarterback at Houston University was a solid college QB, well Friday night I found out that is a LIE! John O’Korn threw four interceptions and made University Texas San Antonio look like a power house. Until Houston figures out how to get their QB on track I will not recommend ever taking them to cover a line. My most underrated team of the this season, Penn State, looked great in the first half and was for sure going to break it open in Ireland. It wasn’t until Central Florida made a quarterback changed to make it a game. Either way coach Franklin got it done and this team will continue to cover lines as I don’t believe Vegas understands Franklins coaching ability. ALABAMA!! Roll Tide!! Yeah that is not what they were saying this Saturday at all, I wasn’t sure who was coaching Lane Kiffin or Nick Saban. Kiffin had so much TV time we could barely notice the terrible performance by the Alabama offense. When a third string transfer throws the ball all over you like Clint Trickett did Saturday, take any big line that is given against Bama this year!
HOW BOUT THEM DAWGS!?! Georgia, if healthy, might be the best team in the nation. Yes they added the best defensive coordinator in the land in Jeremy Pruitt and their offense looks great! This team is going to be a headache for everyone and has the chance to bust the games open late in the fourth with the three headed monster in the backfield. Florida State looked like they are a very talented team that was looking for leadership and rhythm the whole game. Once the Noles get into the ACC schedule we should be seeing more lines covered from them. LSU has QB issues that were hashed out in the second half of the game and Wisconsin QB issues already started up. Either one of these teams are a risky gambles because the inconsistency at QB. This will be the last week that I say to take the line in favor of Baylor since Bryce Petty is injured. He might be playing, but he also is one hit away from being on the sideline – which is risky for a team that faces lines in the middle thirties.
WEEK 2 PREDICTIONS
September 4, 2014
1. ARIZONA -7 TEXAS SAN ANTONIO
Bold Prediction: Texas San Antonio
September 6, 2014
KANSAS STATE -12.5 IOWA STATE
I imagined this line to be 21 points when I saw the matchup. Kansas State has potential to be a dark horse for the National Championship. Coach Snyder had a great looking outing Saturday and Iowa State got rolled by North Dakota State and lost their top WR. This is an obvious overlook by Vegas because of the season K-State had last year.
Prediction: Kansas State Against The Spread
MISSOURI -3.5 TOLEDO
This line opened at 6.5 and has went down since for no obvious reason to me. I watched Missouri last Saturday and I wasn’t disappointed since they have lost a lot of players from last year. Toledo played an FCS powerhouse and has had a tough schedule the last couple years but they were down 14-3 at halftime. There is no chance that Missouri would blow a lead like that against this team. The Rockets gave up 338 passing yards last week and I believe Maty Mauk will throw for over 400 yards after his 3 PTD performance last week. Missouri will wear this team down with the SEC athletes late in the fourth.
Prediction: Missouri Against The Spread
TENNESSEE -17 ARKANSAS STATE
This Tennessee team was the most impressive team of the week 1 for me. The young studs of this team all looked great in Butch Jones 2nd season debut. Senior QB Worley was amazing and with all the weapons this offense has I am going to ride this time all season until I believe the youth is a mismatch. Arkansas State returns only 5 offensive starters and traveling to Knoxville is going to be too much on this young team. The Volunteers are set out to put their team back on the map and Worley is leading this push.
Prediction: Tennessee Against The Spread
KENTUCKY -13 OHIO UNIVERSITY
Kentucky QB Patrick Towles is a native from Kentucky and was a highly recruited QB coming out in 2012. He managed and ran the offense last week against a much worse team in Tenn.-Martin last week in a manner that shows promise. Braylon Heard had 2 TD and looked great but is doubtful to play. The most impressive take away from last week was the defense of the Wildcats. Coach Stoops has quietly been recruiting in the top 25 since he took over head coach. The defense forced 4 turnovers and showed no remorse with 5 forced turnovers. OU turned the ball over 4 times last week against Kent State which is a much slower less athletic team than Kentucky. The Wildcats will repeat another big win this week and win by over 3 TD against a lesser opponent in OU.
Prediction: Kentucky Against The Spread
MICHIGAN STATE +12 OREGON
Oregon has a hard time against big tough defenses and offensive lineman. This is shown from the constant struggle against Stanford from year to year. Although I believe they will win this game because of the home field advantage and QB battle, they will not cover the spread. Michigan State defense and coaching will allow them to be in a position to win late but Marcus Mariota will be the X-factor in this game. This line is too big for you not to take the points in this early season marque game.
Prediction: MSU With The Points
STANFORD -2.5 USC
This is the season for Stanford to claim the Pac-12 title and get a chance at a National Championship. Although USC looked strong and had great QB play from Cody Kessler I have to believe that Hogan is going to out play him in this rivalry game. Stanford is at home it is under 3 points right now and USC upset them last year and this is a revenge game for Stanford to start their run. Stanford struggles to keep up with the athleticism of USC because of the type of team they build but I believe this is going to be an eye opener for Coach Steve Sarkisian with the intensity of the rivalry. A big win over Fresno State does not catch my attention enough to take the points in this game on the road.
Prediction: Stanford Against The Spread
VIRGINIA TECH +11 OHIO STATE
Ohio State has the biggest chance of any top 10 team to be upset this week. Virginia Tech has the possibly the best secondary in the nation and we all know Ohio State was afraid to let the freshman J.T. Barrett air it out last weekend against Navy. The Bucks gave up 370 rushing yards and at time looked like they were totally out of synch. I like the points in this game and expect the Buckeyes to win a close hard fought game. This is about matchups and the secondary will keep the freshman in check so VT can load the box for the run game.
Prediction: Virginia Tech With The Points
UCLA -23.5 MEMPHIS
UCLA’s offense didn’t look good at all and they played terrible on both sides of the ball last week. I really believe that the hype and expectations got to this teams head and they overlooked a mediocre ACC team in Virginia. This brought them back to reality and Coach Jim Mora will get his Heisman candidate QB Brett Hundley rolling in week 2. Memphis is coming off a big win against a terrible Austin Peay team. Memphis is going to struggle to stop UCLA and even to get anything started against Myles Jack and the defense. UCLA is out to show that we are what we thought they were and that is a playoff contender with a big win this week.
Prediction: UCLA Against The Spread
MICHIGAN +3.5 NOTRE DAME
Michigan is in a make or break season for their head coach Brady Hoke. This game is going to be close and come down to QB play. Everett Golson looked great last week and didn’t show any sign that he missed a season. This was against Rice and not Michigan which is going to be the difference in this game. Golson is 3-8 with 2int’s against Michigan and I believe that is going to be the difference in this game. Notre Dame’s defense is going to have a hard time stopping Devin Gardner who I believe is going to have a great year and finish as Offensive Player of the Year for Big Ten. Gardner shredded the Irish defense last year having a career game in passing and rushing yards. The new offense shows his capability of passing last week and he showed his experience and maturity of checks at the line. Take Michigan and the points here as Michigan will be a surprise team this year saving Brady Hoke’s job.
Prediction: Michigan With The Points
DUKE -19 TROY
Duke hammered Elon last week and showed that last year wasn’t a fluke. This offense is one of the top offenses in the ACC. They will put a on a clinic against Troy who loss to UAB last week. You can expect big numbers by Duke in this game and the defense to do their part. The backups for duke looked really solid last week and provided a lot of points in the second half.
Prediction: Duke Against the Spread.