The Crazy Hot Scale of Fantasy Football
The article begins with the must of you watching this video. If you don’t get this concept, this whole piece is going right over your head. Don’t worry it’s not a waste of time … It translates to real life.
The concept itself is dubbed via Barney Stinson on How I Met Your Mother, as he gauges women on a Crazy/Hot Scale. As the video depicts, if a woman is crazy – she must be equally as hot. The Mendoza Line is basically your decision line. If you play hop-scotch with it … Good Luck!
How does this translate to Fantasy Football? Easy! We all are plagued with players each year who flirt with the Crazy/Hot Scale and do the tango with our managerial emotions. There are players every year that explode for huge games then drop us goose-eggs the next. The strategy is simple on exploiting this madness. It starts with your roster … Evaluate your talent and your matchup. If you need big play ability, take that “Crazy Hot Girl” player and start him hoping for that hot performance, especially if you are going up against a team that you have no business beating. If you are a shoe-in for the W, take your consistent points and play the percentages for the win. Don’t over-manage your team and think because this guy had 12 Targets, +100 yards and a pair of TDs that he is going to lead you to the “Promised Land.” Like any normal decision in fantasy football – look at matchups on these players and look at tendencies. We’re not talking about your fly-by-night type of players who are one and done. We’re talking about guys who play the Hot/Cold game like they’re putting a “Dating Strategy” on you. All in all, the strategy itself is this … A player has to possess X amount of blow up ability in order to take X amount of risk to start him. If they’re below the “Mendoza Line” … they’re not worth it.
Let’s evaluate some players for the 2013 Fantasy Football Playoffs and see who is worth the risk & who isn’t:
CJ Spiller – RB:
| Week | Opponent | Opp Rush | Opp Pass | Att | Yds | TD | Fum Lost | Rec | Yds | TD | Tgt | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Patriots | 25 | 5 | 17 | 41 | 1 | 5 | 14 | 6 | ||||
| 2 | vs Panthers | 21 | 22 | 16 | 103 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 5 | ||||
| 3 | at Jets | 6 | 7 | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 4 | vs Ravens | 16 | 16 | 23 | 77 | 0 | |||||||
| 5 | at Browns | 8 | 7 | 8 | 66 | 1 | 0 | ||||||
| 6 | vs Bengals | 9 | 9 | 10 | 55 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 2 | ||||
| 7 | at Dolphins | 14 | 24 | 6 | 11 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 3 | ||||
| 8 | at Saints | 20 | 9 | ||||||||||
| 9 | vs Chiefs | 24 | 3 | 12 | 116 | 0 | 2 | 39 | 3 | ||||
| 10 | at Steelers | 29 | 4 | 8 | 23 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 3 | ||||
| 11 | vs Jets | 1 | 23 | 13 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 2 | ||||
| 12 | Bye | ||||||||||||
| 13 | vs Falcons | 30 | 20 | 15 | 149 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 4 | |||
| 14 | at Buccaneers | 12 | 18 | ||||||||||
| 15 | at Jaguars | 29 | 23 | ||||||||||
| 16 | vs Dolphins | 25 | 9 |
Summary: Spiller has put together some absolute duds to the point where he has lost countless owners games throughout the season as he sometimes hardly contributes to their bottom line. His games are a summary of his season … sometimes electrifying, sometimes uninspiring and sometimes injured. Rolling into Weeks 14, 15 and 16 – Spiller heads South to TB and JAX, followed by a trip back home to BUF in Week 16. In comparison to our example, Spiller is a tease. His potential for monster games are there, but so are his uneventful games. He sits at the highest point of our scale – yielding high rewards with the highest amount of risk.
Verdict: Hit the check mark beside his name, close your eyes and hope for the best. He should reward fantasy owners in Week 14 and 15.
Tony Romo – QB:
| Week | Pts | Opponent | Opp Rush | Opp Pass | Comp | Att | Yds | TD | Int | Att | Yds | TD | Fum Lost | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Giants | 16 | 15 | 36 | 49 | 263 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | |||
| 2 | at Chiefs | 2 | 7 | 30 | 42 | 298 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 3 | vs Rams | 16 | 23 | 17 | 24 | 210 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| 4 | at Chargers | 24 | 29 | 27 | 37 | 246 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 0 | |||
| 5 | vs Broncos | 1 | 30 | 25 | 36 | 506 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | |||
| 6 | vs Redskins | 25 | 24 | 18 | 30 | 170 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |||||
| 7 | at Eagles | 11 | 30 | 28 | 47 | 317 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | |||
| 8 | at Lions | 18 | 24 | 14 | 30 | 206 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 0 | |||
| 9 | vs Vikings | 11 | 29 | 34 | 51 | 337 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | |||
| 10 | at Saints | 23 | 3 | 10 | 24 | 128 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| 11 | Bye | |||||||||||||
| 12 | at Giants | 7 | 15 | 23 | 38 | 234 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |||
| 13 | vs Raiders | 10 | 24 | 23 | 32 | 225 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | |||
| 14 | at Bears | 32 | 14 | |||||||||||
| 15 | vs Packers | 26 | 22 | |||||||||||
| 16 | at Redskins | 14 | 27 |
Summary: Romo has the balanced attack of a potent running and receiving game at his disposal. He’s went for multiple TD games 7 times this season. We view Weeks 14, 15 and 16 as salivating matchups for Romo. He has slipped in our weekly rankings due to his mediocre performances, but with options like Matt Ryan, RGIII, Kaepernick and Andrew Luck slipping … the position that started off as deep has leveled off. Don’t do anything crazy like starting Alex Smith or Carson Palmer over Romo. Stick with your stud here. His risk of a bomb performance is low, as he’s only thrown 7 INTs the entire season and dipped below the 200 Yard mark only once this season. His risk is low, but his potential is through the roof. When Romo gets it going, he’s like Reggie Miller vs. the Knicks!
Verdict: Start ‘Em.
Darren Sproles – RB:
| Week | Opponent | Opp Rush | Opp Pass | Status | Att | Yds | TD | Fum Lost | Rec | Yds | TD | Tgt | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Falcons | 12 | 27 | 8 | 22 | 0 | 6 | 88 | 6 | ||||
| 2 | at Buccaneers | 11 | 18 | 7 | 26 | 0 | 6 | 36 | 8 | ||||
| 3 | vs Cardinals | 3 | 26 | 3 | 17 | 0 | 4 | 39 | 6 | ||||
| 4 | vs Dolphins | 10 | 24 | 4 | 28 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 114 | 1 | 8 | ||
| 5 | at Bears | 13 | 23 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 3 | 31 | 3 | ||||
| 6 | at Patriots | 22 | 13 | 5 | 15 | 0 | 6 | 58 | 12 | ||||
| 7 | Bye | ||||||||||||
| 8 | vs Bills | 25 | 23 | 0 | 4 | 4 | |||||||
| 9 | at Jets | 1 | 21 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | ||||||
| 10 | vs Cowboys | 28 | 31 | 5 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 76 | 1 | 7 | ||
| 11 | vs 49ers | 11 | 10 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 4 | 19 | 4 | ||||
| 12 | at Falcons | 27 | 23 | ||||||||||
| 13 | at Seahawks | 13 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 7 | 32 | 8 | ||||
| 14 | vs Panthers | 2 | 6 | ||||||||||
| 15 | at Rams | 15 | 19 | ||||||||||
| 16 | at Panthers | 2 | 6 |
Summary: Sproles is scary. He started off the season as a consistent producer involved in both the rushing and receiving game. As the season has progressed, they have brought more RBs into the NOLA backfield ala Pierre Thomas and Mark Ingram. His production has seriously slipped and shouldn’t be trusted. It’s never a nice gesture to see one of your guys go up against the same team in Weeks 14 and 16, let alone against a potent Carolina Panthers Defense. At the moment, he’s offering little to no reward for a large amount of risk we’re not willing to carry.
Verdict: Sit ‘Em.
Riley Cooper – WR:
| Week | Opponent | Opp Rush | Opp Pass | Rec | Yds | TD | Tgt | Att | Yds | TD | Fum Lost | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | at Redskins | 28 | 8 | 2 | 14 | 6 | 0 | ||||||
| 2 | vs Chargers | 20 | 31 | 2 | 25 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |||||
| 3 | vs Chiefs | 24 | 5 | 2 | 29 | 7 | 0 | ||||||
| 4 | at Broncos | 1 | 30 | 2 | 25 | 2 | 0 | ||||||
| 5 | at Giants | 27 | 21 | 1 | |||||||||
| 6 | at Buccaneers | 12 | 16 | 4 | 120 | 1 | 6 | 0 | |||||
| 7 | vs Cowboys | 12 | 29 | 6 | 88 | 7 | 0 | ||||||
| 8 | vs Giants | 10 | 17 | 2 | 13 | 5 | 0 | ||||||
| 9 | at Raiders | 6 | 25 | 5 | 139 | 3 | 6 | 18 | 0 | ||||
| 10 | at Packers | 13 | 20 | 3 | 102 | 2 | 5 | 0 | |||||
| 11 | vs Redskins | 17 | 26 | 3 | 37 | 7 | 0 | ||||||
| 12 | Bye | ||||||||||||
| 13 | vs Cardinals | 4 | 16 | 3 | 48 | 6 | 0 | ||||||
| 14 | vs Lions | 3 | 26 | ||||||||||
| 15 | at Vikings | 23 | 30 | ||||||||||
| 16 | vs Bears | 32 | 14 |
Summary: Riley Cooper has the potential to be a Fantasy Playoff Gem for fantasy owners. His matchups are major eye candy going up against Detroit and Minnesota. If you happen to be in leagues that play into Week 17 … Cooper and the Eagles play Dallas, another beautiful matchup. The chemistry between Foles and Cooper is solid and we feel comfortable recommending him as a good 2WR play down the stretch. Cooper has had some monster performances this season and we feel that even if he doesn’t reach those astronomical levels, he’s still a strong play and will produce quality numbers with the consistent potential to “WOW” you.
Verdict: Start ‘Em.
If you’ve read this far, congrats – you’ve just figured out woman and fantasy football! Sit back, relax, hit play on the video below and enjoy the 2013 Fantasy Football Playoffs!