Last year’s coaching carousel took out Brian Kelly, James Franklin, Mike Gundy and Sam Pittman, and the sport’s new rhythm is that nobody waits for December anymore: bad starts get coaches fired in October. This page tracks who is in trouble entering and during the 2026 season, why, and what it would cost their school to act. It refreshes after every weekend of games.
| Coach | School | Heat | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Norvell | Florida State | 5.0 | Back to back losing seasons and 3 and 13 in ACC play since 2024, two years after a 13 and 1 ACC title team was left out of the playoff. A large buyout bought him 2025; a third straight losing year almost certainly ends it. Opens Monday night vs. No. 19 SMU |
| Luke Fickell | Wisconsin | 5.0 | Losing records and no bowl in a program that had made one every year for two decades before him. Plays No. 4 Notre Dame at Lambeau Field on Sunday night, which is not the schedule a coach on a 5.0 wants |
| Dave Aranda | Baylor | 5.0 | Survived a 5.0 rating once before with a bounce back, then slid again. Baylor lost its opener 17 to 16 to Auburn in Atlanta on Saturday, a game it led late. Baylor was 47 and 31 in the six years before he arrived |
| Mike Locksley | Maryland | 4.9 | Back to back losing seasons after three straight bowl wins. Nearly unanimous on the panel. Opened Saturday night vs. Hampton |
| Shane Beamer | South Carolina | 4.3 | 4 and 8 in 2025 one year after a 9 win season and playoff talk. Has LaNorris Sellers back and beat Kent State 57 to 0 Saturday; the SEC schedule decides it |
| Bill Belichick | North Carolina | 4.1 | Year two of the most watched experiment in the sport. The Sporting News ranks him the most likely coach to be fired in 2026, CBS has him at 4.1; the gap is whether North Carolina would actually eat the contract |
| Bill O’Brien | Boston College | Warm | Lost the opener 34 to 15 at Cincinnati on Saturday. A second straight losing season at a program that expected a veteran NFL coach to stabilize it |
| Jeff Lebby | Mississippi State | Warm | Two seasons in with an SEC record near the bottom of the league; the Egg Bowl loss to end 2025 did not help |
| Scott Satterfield | Cincinnati | Warm | Three years in without the Big 12 breakthrough Cincinnati expected when it left the American. Saturday’s 34 to 15 win over Boston College cooled it a degree |
| Dell McGee | Georgia State | Warm | The top Group of Five name on most lists after two losing seasons. Georgia State beat North Carolina A&T 59 to 10 Friday |
| Derek Mason | Middle Tennessee | Warm | Losing seasons since replacing Rick Stockstill; Conference USA patience is short |
| Dabo Swinney | Clemson | Talk only | 7 and 6 and an unranked start put a two time champion in columns for the first time. The $57 million buyout means the answer is no regardless of tonight at LSU. Full breakdown on Dabo Swinney |
| Kalen DeBoer | Alabama | Expectations | Not in danger, but year three at Alabama with a first year starting quarterback and a No. 13 preseason ranking is the definition of a seat that gets hot fast. Opened 48 to 10 over East Carolina |
| Josh Heupel | Tennessee | Expectations | Safe after 2025, but the SEC’s middle tier with a fan base that expects more and a No. 20 preseason ranking. Opened 56 to 9 over Furman |
| Brent Venables | Oklahoma | Expectations | Went from the second hottest seat in the country to the College Football Playoff a year ago, the reminder that these lists are a snapshot. Opened 51 to 0 over UTEP; Michigan on the road next week |
How the Hot Seat Actually Works Now
Three things decide whether a coach on this list is gone by December. The first is the buyout: CBS Sports’ panel found that of the coaches rated 4.0 or higher entering 2025, every one who did not turn it around was fired, but the coaches with prohibitive buyouts (Swinney, Norvell a year ago) get an extra season the others do not. The second is timing: with the early signing period, athletic directors make changes by the first week of December, and October firings are now routine. The third is the portal: a school that has just spent $30 million on a roster does not wait through a rebuild.
The flip side is that a hot seat is not a verdict. Brent Venables went from the second hottest seat in the country to the College Football Playoff in 2025. Louisiana Tech’s Sonny Cumbie was the only unanimous 5.0 last year and won eight games. Dave Aranda has already survived one 5.0 rating.
Who Is Safest
Kirby Smart, Curt Cignetti and Dan Lanning sit at the bottom of every ranking, and every first year coach, Lane Kiffin at LSU included, starts at zero. Kiffin’s $91 million contract is on Lane Kiffin salary. The national salary and buyout list is on college football coaching salaries.
The Bottom Line
Mike Norvell, Luke Fickell and Dave Aranda enter 2026 on the hottest seats in college football, with Mike Locksley, Shane Beamer and Bill Belichick close behind. Aranda and Bill O’Brien lost on the first Saturday. Dabo Swinney is on the lists because of a 7 and 6 season and off them because of a $57 million buyout. This page updates every week through the coaching carousel.