Buffalo opens the new Highmark Stadium on Thursday Night Football as a 5.5 point favorite over Detroit at most books, and both teams are coming off Week 1 games that produced 61 and 67 points. Our prediction: Bills 30, Lions 27, with the total going over.
The Picks
| Market | Line | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Bills -5.5 (still -4.5 at a few books) | Lions +5.5, the number has finally moved far enough |
| Moneyline | Bills -245 | Bills |
| Total | 53.5 to 55 | Over |
Why the Bills Win
Josh Allen accounted for four touchdowns and 334 passing yards at Houston and closed the game with a late go ahead drive. He now faces a Detroit secondary that allowed 410 passing yards to Tyler Shough and is playing without safeties Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph, both on PUP. DJ Moore went for 100 yards in his Bills debut and Dalton Kincaid had 130. Add Greg Rousseau’s two sacks and two forced fumbles against a Lions line missing starters Christian Mahogany and Blake Miller, and Buffalo has the clearer path to points.
Why It Stays Close
Jahmyr Gibbs ran 29 times for 156 yards and two touchdowns against New Orleans, and Detroit’s best answer to a short week and a patched line is to hand him the ball and lean on play action. Buffalo’s defense gave up 31 points and 7.9 yards per play to the Texans, and the Bills are 0-4 against the spread in their last four prime time games. Amon-Ra St. Brown drew 14 targets in Week 1 and should see plenty again. The last meeting, in December 2024, produced 90 points and a six point margin.
Best Bet
The over. Both Week 1 games went over, both defenses looked porous, the weather is mild with light wind, and the total sits at 54.5 to 55 depending on the book. Two offenses this efficient in a clean building should clear it. The spread is the tougher call: at 5.5 the number has moved past a field goal and a touchdown is the next common margin, so Lions +5.5 is the side if you want one. Our 30-27 score has Detroit covering while Buffalo wins.
Related
Full odds and line movement · Injury report · How to watch · NFL Week 2 predictions
The Bottom Line
Bills 30, Lions 27. Buffalo wins the stadium opener behind Allen and a pass rush that punishes Detroit’s backup linemen, but the Lions keep it inside a touchdown and the game goes over.