Built from 8,234 live 12-team PPR mock drafts run between August 23 and August 30, 2026. Updated through draft weekend.
These rankings are ordered by average draft position from real drafts rather than one analyst’s opinion. That matters right now, because rosters changed enormously this weekend — the NFL’s cutdown to 53 landed Sunday, and drafts run since then already reflect it.
Jahmyr Gibbs is the consensus 1.01 at an ADP of 1.5. After that it gets interesting quickly.
| # | Player | Pos | Team | Bye | ADP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jahmyr Gibbs | RB | DET | 6 | 1.5 |
| 2 | Bijan Robinson | RB | ATL | 11 | 2.3 |
| 3 | Puka Nacua | WR | LAR | 11 | 3.0 |
| 4 | Ja’Marr Chase | WR | CIN | 6 | 3.9 |
| 5 | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | SEA | 11 | 5.5 |
| 6 | Amon-Ra St. Brown | WR | DET | 6 | 6.4 |
| 7 | Christian McCaffrey | RB | SF | 8 | 6.6 |
| 8 | Jonathan Taylor | RB | IND | 13 | 7.4 |
| 9 | De’Von Achane | RB | MIA | 6 | 10.3 |
| 10 | CeeDee Lamb | WR | DAL | 14 | 10.5 |
| 11 | Drake London | WR | ATL | 11 | 11.4 |
| 12 | Justin Jefferson | WR | MIN | 6 | 11.9 |
| 13 | James Cook III | RB | BUF | 7 | 12.5 |
| 14 | Chase Brown | RB | CIN | 6 | 13.0 |
| 15 | Rashee Rice | WR | KC | 5 | 15.6 |
| 16 | Derrick Henry | RB | BAL | 13 | 16.8 |
| 17 | A.J. Brown | WR | NE | 11 | 17.6 |
| 18 | Chris Olave | WR | NO | 8 | 18.9 |
| 19 | Saquon Barkley | RB | PHI | 10 | 19.0 |
| 20 | Ashton Jeanty | RB | LV | 13 | 19.9 |
| 21 | George Pickens | WR | DAL | 14 | 20.7 |
| 22 | Kenneth Walker | RB | KC | 5 | 21.1 |
| 23 | Nico Collins | WR | HOU | 8 | 21.2 |
| 24 | Omarion Hampton | RB | LAC | 7 | 22.7 |
| 25 | Zay Flowers | WR | BAL | 13 | 26.4 |
| 26 | Garrett Wilson | WR | NYJ | 13 | 26.6 |
| 27 | Malik Nabers | WR | NYG | 8 | 26.9 |
| 28 | Jeremiyah Love | RB | ARI | 14 | 27.1 |
| 29 | Trey McBride | TE | ARI | 14 | 29.2 |
| 30 | DeVonta Smith | WR | PHI | 10 | 29.9 |
| 31 | Tetairoa McMillan | WR | CAR | 5 | 31.0 |
| 32 | Josh Jacobs | RB | GB | 11 | 31.4 |
| 33 | Kyren Williams | RB | LAR | 11 | 31.5 |
| 34 | Breece Hall | RB | NYJ | 13 | 33.7 |
| 35 | Josh Allen | QB | BUF | 7 | 34.5 |
| 36 | Emeka Egbuka | WR | TB | 10 | 34.8 |
| 37 | Brock Bowers | TE | LV | 13 | 35.2 |
| 38 | Travis Etienne Jr. | RB | NO | 8 | 36.7 |
| 39 | Javonte Williams | RB | DAL | 14 | 36.8 |
| 40 | Tee Higgins | WR | CIN | 6 | 37.1 |
| 41 | Ladd McConkey | WR | LAC | 7 | 38.1 |
| 42 | Cam Skattebo | RB | NYG | 8 | 38.8 |
| 43 | Davante Adams | WR | LAR | 11 | 42.3 |
| 44 | D’Andre Swift | RB | CHI | 10 | 45.0 |
| 45 | Bucky Irving | RB | TB | 10 | 45.1 |
| 46 | Jameson Williams | WR | DET | 6 | 45.2 |
| 47 | Jaylen Waddle | WR | DEN | 10 | 45.4 |
| 48 | Terry McLaurin | WR | WAS | 7 | 47.8 |
| 49 | DJ Moore | WR | BUF | 7 | 48.2 |
| 50 | Quinshon Judkins | RB | CLE | 11 | 50.5 |
ADP is the average pick number across 12-team PPR drafts. Shaded rows mark the first player off the board at quarterback and tight end, and the widest disagreement in the top 20.
Positional Leaders
| Position | Top five in order |
|---|---|
| RB | Gibbs, Bijan Robinson, McCaffrey, Jonathan Taylor, Achane |
| WR | Nacua, Chase, Smith-Njigba, St. Brown, Lamb |
| TE | McBride (29), Bowers (37), Loveland (56), Warren (68), Pitts (79) |
| QB | Allen (35), Maye (51), Lamar Jackson (57), Burrow (58), Prescott (69) |
| DEF | Seattle (85), Denver (90), Houston (102) |
| K | Brandon Aubrey (131) — the only kicker drafted meaningfully early |
What the Data Actually Shows
Running backs own the top of the board again. Four of the first eight picks are backs, and Gibbs has separated as a near-unanimous 1.01 — his ADP of 1.5 with a standard deviation of 0.7 means he almost never falls past the second pick. We wrote about that shift in running backs going early again.
The first quarterback doesn’t leave until pick 35. Josh Allen is the QB1 but carries a standard deviation of 8.9, the widest in the top 40 — some drafters take him in the third round, others wait until the fifth. Four more quarterbacks go between 51 and 69, which means there is no urgency unless your league is superflex.
Ashton Jeanty is the most divisive pick in the first two rounds. His ADP of 19.9 comes with a standard deviation of 5.2, far above anyone near him. He has gone as early as 1.03 and as late as 3.11. That spread is where drafts are won and lost.
Tight end is a two-man cliff. McBride at 29 and Bowers at 37 go inside the top 40, then nothing until Colston Loveland at 56. If you miss both, waiting until the double-digit rounds costs almost nothing.
How to Use These
ADP is a map of what the room will do, not a ranking of who will score most. Its value is in spotting where a player you like is being drafted so you can take him a round before he disappears, and in recognising when the board is falling to you. Our explainers on how ADP works and drafting by tiers cover the method.
One caution specific to this weekend: NFL rosters were cut to 53 on Sunday and waiver claims settle Monday afternoon. Depth charts behind several of these names will look different by Tuesday, so late-round picks in particular deserve a fresh look before you draft. Live ADP is at Fantasy Football Calculator.
The Bottom Line
Jahmyr Gibbs is the consensus first pick and the safest bet on the board to go 1.01. Puka Nacua leads the receivers at an ADP of 3.0, Trey McBride is the first tight end at 29 and Josh Allen the first quarterback at 35. Four running backs land in the top eight, and Ashton Jeanty at pick 20 is the biggest coin flip of the early rounds.