Fantasy Football Sleepers

Gardner Minshew

Minshew currently sits at an ECR Pre-Season Ranking of 22 amongst Fantasy Football Experts and we fully expect him to outperform that ranking. Jacksonville’s Defense remains porous, Minshew is complimented with an OC who historically lifts QBs and we see plenty of runway for Minshew to exceed +550 Passing Attempts! Last season, Jacksonville averaged 36 Passing Attempts Per Game. Minshew offers value with his legs and if you are taking notes, we also expect DJ Chark to be peppered with targets! If you happen to miss on a QB or plan to rack up talent early in the draft and punt QB, Minshew should be part of your late round draft plans. 

Kareem Hunt

Hunt’s return to the NFL reduced Chubb’s overall workload in 2019 … a blessing in disguise which prevented injury. Chubb’s first half of the season workload was unsustainable, but still managed to lead the league with 76% of Cleveland’s Rushing Attempts over the course of the season (McCaffrey 2nd with 74.4%). The Browns enter another season with a new coach in Kevin Stefanski, formerly of Minnesota. Prior to Hunt’s debut in Cleveland, Chubb was running as the 4th best Fantasy RB. When Hunt returned, Chubb ran as the 18th best Fantasy RB, while Hunt ran as the 26th best! Hunt’s contract is up after this season and fantasy owners can fully expect Cleveland to incorporate a two back timeshare in Stefanski’s system. Hunt should be considered 2020’s highest upside handcuff that will also deliver +10 Touches Per Game along the way for fantasy owners. Hunt becomes a league winner should something happen to Chubb.

Phillip Lindsay

What do Phillip Lindsay and Rodney Dangerfield have in common … You guessed it! Neither of these guys get any respect! 

Regarding Lindsay, Broncos GM John Elway said “we’ll see where everything falls after free agency, after the draft (and) how much money we have. We would like to be able to do something. Obviously, Phillip’s been great. If we can do something, we’ll try.” Denver then went out an signed RB Melvin Gordon to a 2-Year Deal worth $16 Million. Despite Lindsay logging +1,000 Yards for a second consecutive season, Denver tipped their hand and the writing is on the wall. Lindsay will enter the “3rd Year” of his un-drafted free agent contract, then become a restricted free agent in 2021, at which point the Broncos could place a 2nd Round restricted free-agent tender on him for a little more than $3M, then allow him to hit unrestricted free agency in 2022. 

Denver may view him as expendable, but if you’ve seen Lindsay run, he’s motivated from the first whistle! A guy that plays with that much tenacity will take every opportunity to once again prove his worth! Our opinion is that Gordon will have a tall task in holding off Lindsay from earning snaps. Lindsay came into the league as an UDFA with a chip on his shoulder and produced. This move by the Broncos adds fuel to the fire and we expect Lindsay to fully outperform his ADP in 2020.

Ronald Jones

We love the offense and potential that Jones provides given his late ADP. Jones has been sliding up draft boards slowly as more news comes out. HC Bruce Arians recently told reporters on a call that Ronald Jones II is the “main guy” in the Bucs backfield and that all the other guys are jostling for roles outside of that. Jones currently sits at an ECR of 30 and given the offense he is in, we fully expect him to outperform. There is too much to like here and certainly too much to ignore! You can draft Ronald Jones with a RB3 price-tag and receive solid RB2 value and production.

DK Metcalf

We’ve been drafting Metcalf everywhere! Snakes, Auctions … You Name It!

WR is flushed with talent in 2020, but we feel that there are certain players who land outside of the Top 15-20 in rankings that have true Top 7 upside. Calvin Ridley is another name, but he comes with a much more expensive price tag compared to Metcalf. In fact, WRs 7-24 have every capability of landing in the Top 10, but given where Metcalf sits right now … We feel that he provides the most upside at a fair price.

Seahawks OC Brian Schottenheimer says he is looking to expand D.K. Metcalf’s versatility in the passing game this season. Schottenheimer went onto say, “He kind of got stuck at the ‘X’ receiver last year. This year we know we can move him around quite a bit more. I just think the flexibility of moving him around and introducing some different route concepts that we can kind of get him up to speed on will complement the things that he’s already put on film.”

Expect Metcalf to build on 2019’s success in a big way! Metcalf tallied 900 Receiving Yards, 7 TDs and 58 Receptions on 100 Targets in 2019 and put an exclamation point on his rookie season with a rookie record-breaking playoff performance of 160 Receiving Yards and 1 TD vs. Philly during Rd. 2 of the NFL Playoffs. In fact, Metcalf totaled 2 TDs in the 2019 Playoffs and averaged 100 YPG, +8 Targets Per Game and +5 Receptions Per Game in “3” 2019 NFL Playoff Games. Russell Wilson has been vocal about Seattle’s need to establishing a heavier passing attack this season with the Hawk’s defense and ground game both deteriorating. Look for Metcalf to take another step forward in 2020.

Diontae Johnson

With Big Ben returning from injury, Dionte Johnson is a Legion Report favorite to capitalize in 2020! Johnson kicked off his rookie season with 59 Receptions on 92 Targets for 680 Yards and 5 TDs and should only expand his capabilities heading into his sophomore season! Johnson’s ultimate success in 2020 will depend on the health of Big Ben and if this team will remain pass-heavy. However, given his current ADP amongst WRs, Johnson provides plenty of upside at significant value for fantasy owners!

Christian Kirk

The addition of Kyler Murray took the Arizona Offense from 56.4 Plays Per Game in 2018 to 62.5 Plays Per Game in 2019. Last season, Kyler Murray ranked 10th in Passing Completions (349) and 9th in Passing Attempts (542), but was sacked a league-leading 48 times. Fast forward and AZ makes a mid-season deal for Kenyan Drake and off-season trade for DeAndre Hopkins. Bam! During his last 5 Seasons in Houston, Hopkins has averaged 100 Receptions, 166 Targets, 1,318 Yards and 9 TDs Per Season. Despite the massive addition offensively, we expect the tempo of this offense to only increase! Expect positive regression in both volume and overall offense in AZ. Kirk is a heavy favorite in fantasy circles as owners look to gain exposure to this offense.  Kirk will undoubtably expand on last seasons numbers (68 Receptions/108 Targets/709 Receiving Yards/3 TDs) and be a heavily targeted 3rd Year WR candidate when fantasy drafts roll around in 2020!

Jamison Crowder

There isn’t much hope for the Jets in 2020 and the weaponry that Sam Darnold is surrounded with should be considered minimal at best. Last season, Crowder sucked up 78 Receptions on 122 Targets, totaling 833 Yards and 6 TDs. Crowder didn’t yield one game exceeding +100 Yards, but in a PPR Format, we expect him to be a hidden gem. Perriman and Mims are new to the offense and with an upside-down off-season, we expect that chemistry to pay dividends with a mediocre QB. There isn’t anything flashy about this pick, but Crowder will provide value for PPR Fantasy Owners in 2020.

Tyler Boyd

Boyd now has accumulated back-to-back +1,000 Yard Seasons and will see an upgrade at QB in Joe Burrow. Despite all the injuries in Cincinnati last season, Boyd still played more than 60% of his snaps in the slot in 2019 and this is where he will live in 2020. Last season at LSU, Burrow peppered Slot WR Justin Jefferson. Per Pro Football Focus, “Jefferson’s 18 touchdowns in the slot last season were the most ever by a player since the stat was first tracked in 2014, and his 1,518 yards in the slot were the most since 2016. Jefferson recorded 111 catches for 1,540 yards and 18 touchdowns for LSU last year, and the majority of his production (obviously) was in the slot.” That is something to pay attention to and we recommend grabbing a few shares of ownership on this one! 

Allen Lazard

Lazard should be considered as a late round sleeper with upside as he has solidified himself as the WR2 in GB opposite of Davante Adams. Lazard showed late season progress in 2019 and chemistry with Rodgers. Although Rodgers ceiling has been scaled back over the past few seasons, his efficiency and talent remains. The combination of Funchess and Allison exiting leaves plenty of opportunity for Lazard to outperform his current ADP. 

Blake Jarwin

Over the past two seasons, QB Dak Prescott has averaged 561 Passing Attempts Per Season. Last season, Jarwin only saw 41 Targets, but the then 37-Year-Old TE Jason Witten saw 83 Targets. That being said, the TE position in Dallas saw a total of 124 Targets. Witten was a sure-handed option for Dak, claiming a 76% Catch Rate, but in both 2018 and 2019, Jarwin also yielded a 76% Catch Rate. Entering his 4th Season in the NFL, all of Jarwin’s experience in the league comes under both Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys umbrella. This offense is loaded with talent and to complicate matters further, the Cowboys made change and exchanged out an aging Randall Cobb for a bonafide superstar in the making … CeeDee Lamb. Adding Lamb into an offense that already includes Amari Cooper, Zeke and Gallup makes Jarwin’s involvement questionable, but even if he lands at 75% of the positions target share from 2019, we are looking at a potential of 95 Targets for Jarwin. With his consistent “Catch Rate” of 75%, it’s fair to estimate potentially +70 Receptions out of the 4th Year TE. This is an offense that finds a way to utilize the TE Position. With the amount of talent on offense, Jarwin should find enough opportunity to makes things happen when the ball is thrown his way. Jarwin is currently pegged with an ECR of TE 18 through fantasy circles, but we have him currently at 12 and consider him a solid sleeper candidate for 2020!

 

 

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