Every spring, the fate of NBA franchises comes down to a bunch of ping-pong balls bouncing in a machine. The draft lottery decides which struggling teams get the first crack at the next generation of stars, and it is designed to keep teams from simply losing on purpose to land the top pick. So how does the NBA Draft lottery actually work, how is the rest of the draft order set, and what is the big change coming in 2027?
The system blends random chance for the top picks with a record-based order for everyone else, and it is about to get a significant overhaul. Here is a clear, complete breakdown of how it all works.
The chart below explains the NBA Draft lottery: the odds, the drawing, and how the full order is built. Take a look, then we’ll walk through each part.
Contents
What Is the NBA Draft Lottery?
The NBA Draft lottery is an annual event that determines the order of the top picks in the upcoming draft. Introduced in 1985, its core purpose is to discourage “tanking,” the practice of teams intentionally losing games late in the season to secure a higher draft pick. By making the top selections a matter of weighted chance rather than simply awarding the No. 1 pick to the worst team, the lottery removes much of the incentive to lose on purpose. The 14 teams that miss the playoffs each year are entered into the lottery, with the worst teams given the best odds, but no guarantee, of landing the coveted first overall pick.
How the Draft Order Is Built
The full first round of the draft order comes together in stages. The top four picks are decided by the lottery drawing, a random draw weighted by team record. After those four are set, the remaining lottery teams, the non-playoff clubs that did not win a top-four slot, are slotted into picks 5 through 14 in reverse order of their regular-season record, so the worst remaining record picks fifth, and so on. Picks 15 through 30 then go to the 16 playoff teams, again in reverse order of regular-season record, with playoff results having no effect on draft position. The entire second round, picks 31 through 60, is set purely by reverse record order, with no lottery involved.
The Odds: Who Has the Best Chance
Since a change in 2019, the NBA uses “flattened” odds at the top to further reduce tanking incentives. The three teams with the worst regular-season records each receive identical 14 percent odds at the No. 1 pick, the highest available. From there the odds decline steadily: the fourth-worst team sits at 12.5 percent, dropping all the way down to just 0.5 percent for the best of the 14 non-playoff teams. Mechanically, there are 1,001 possible four-number combinations, and 1,000 of them are distributed to the lottery teams in proportion to their odds, the three worst teams getting 140 combinations each, down to just 5 for the 14th team. When teams finish with identical records, they split their combined odds evenly.
How the Drawing Actually Happens
The drawing itself is a genuine ping-pong-ball lottery, conducted in a private room overseen by the accounting firm Ernst & Young, with team and media representatives present, before the results are revealed on the television broadcast. Fourteen numbered balls are placed in a machine and mixed for 20 seconds, then the first ball is drawn. After another 10-second mix, the second ball is drawn, and so on until four balls form a combination. Whichever team was assigned that four-ball combination wins the No. 1 pick. The balls are returned and the process repeats for the second, third, and fourth picks. If a combination comes up that is unassigned or belongs to a team that already won, it is simply discarded and redrawn.
The Big Change Coming in 2027
After widespread tanking during the 2025-26 season, the NBA approved a new “3-2-1” lottery system that takes effect with the 2027 draft. It expands the lottery from 14 to 16 teams and changes how odds are distributed using ping-pong ball allocations. Most significantly, the three worst teams are “draft relegated,” receiving only two lottery balls each (a 5.4 percent shot at No. 1) instead of the top odds, so finishing with the worst record no longer earns the best chance at the top pick. Teams that miss the playoffs and play-in get three balls each (8.1 percent), while play-in participants get two or one ball depending on their seed. It is the league’s most aggressive anti-tanking move yet. For more on team finances that shape these decisions, see our explainer on the NBA arena capacities.
Why Trades Make It Complicated
One final wrinkle: the lottery and record order produce a “clean” draft order, but the actual order on draft night often looks quite different because of trades. NBA teams frequently trade their draft picks, sometimes years in advance, so a pick determined by one team’s record or lottery luck may actually belong to a completely different team. A club can effectively pick using another team’s odds if it acquired that team’s pick. This is why following the draft requires tracking not just the standings and lottery results, but the web of pick trades that reshuffles who actually selects where. It adds a layer of strategy that makes the draft a year-round chess match for front offices.
The Bottom Line
The NBA Draft lottery uses weighted ping-pong ball combinations to assign the top four picks among the 14 non-playoff teams, with the three worst teams sharing the best odds at 14 percent each. The rest of the first round and all of the second round are set by reverse order of regular-season record, and trades can reshuffle everything. Starting in 2027, the new 3-2-1 system expands the lottery to 16 teams and strips the worst teams of their top-odds advantage to fight tanking. Understanding the mix of chance, record, and trades is the key to following one of the most consequential nights on the NBA calendar.