Cleveland opens at Jacksonville in the most lopsided of the Sunday early games. Kickoff is 1 p.m. ET on CBS, the Jaguars are favored by 7.5, and the total of 40.5 is among the lowest of the week.
What time is Browns vs Jaguars, and what channel?
Sunday, September 13 at 1 p.m. ET on CBS, carried regionally, with streaming on Paramount Plus. Out of market viewers need NFL Sunday Ticket.
The matchup
The 79.5 percent win probability is the most one sided figure of the weekend, higher even than the Chargers game where the spread is larger. That gap between a 7.5 point spread and a near 80 percent model number is worth noticing: the market is pricing this closer than the model sees it.
The 40.5 total is the joint second lowest of Week 1, which is what pulls the spread down. When a game is expected to produce this few points, a touchdown and a half is a wider margin than it looks.
Prediction and odds
Jaguars -7.5, though it is the least comfortable of the favorite plays. Laying more than a touchdown in a game with a 40.5 total means you effectively need a two score win in a low scoring game. The safer expression is the Jacksonville moneyline, expensive as -395 is.
Our pick: Jaguars 24, Browns 13.
The bottom line
The biggest mismatch of the early window on paper. Low total, big spread, and the most lopsided win probability of the entire opening weekend.