| Rank | Name | Odds | Implied | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lamine Yamal | +120 | 46% | ▲ 12 |
| 2 | Harry Kane | +125 | 45% | ▼ 12 |
| 3 | Lionel Messi | +1,718 | 5.5% | ▲ 2 |
| 4 | Kylian Mbappe | +2,122 | 4.5% | ▼ 3 |
| 5 | Rodri | +3,900 | 2.5% | ▲ 1 |
| 6 | Khvicha Kvaratskhelia | +6,567 | 1.5% | ▼ 1 |
| 7 | Michael Olise | +9,900 | 1.0% | — |
| 8 | Nuno Mendes | +9,900 | 1.0% | — |
| 9 | Vinicius Junior | +9,900 | 1.0% | — |
| 10 | Lautaro Martinez | +9,900 | 1.0% | — |
| 11 | Luis Diaz | +9,900 | 1.0% | — |
| 12 | Ousmane Dembele | +9,900 | 1.0% | — |
| 13 | Jude Bellingham | +9,900 | 1.0% | — |
| 14 | Vitinha | +9,900 | 1.0% | — |
| 15 | Erling Haaland | +9,900 | 1.0% | — |
| 16 | Declan Rice | +9,900 | 1.0% | — |
| 17 | Bruno Fernandes | +9,900 | 1.0% | — |
Odds are the live price on Kalshi’s prediction market expressed as an American line, refreshed every two minutes; sportsbook prices will differ. Implied is the market’s probability. 24h is the move in percentage points since the previous day’s close.
The Nominees Are Out and Kane Is Clear
Where the market stands, September 24: Harry Kane is still the clear favorite at about 60 percent, but Lamine Yamal has closed the gap to roughly 23 percent, with Kylian Mbappe third near 9 percent and Lionel Messi fourth around 6 percent. The table above has the live numbers.
France Football released the 30 man shortlist on Tuesday, September 8, and the market barely moved at first. Everyone else is a long shot.
The ceremony is Monday, October 26 in London. It is the 70th edition of the award and the first ever held outside Paris, a nod to Stanley Matthews, the Englishman who won the very first one in 1956.
Why Kane Is Favored
Nobody in world football scored more club goals last season. Kane finished with 61 in 51 appearances for Bayern Munich as the club won the domestic treble, and he collected a second European Golden Shoe. He then scored six times at the World Cup as England reached the semifinal and finished third.
He would be the first English winner since Michael Owen in 2001 and only the fourth ever, after Matthews, Bobby Charlton and Kevin Keegan.
The Case Against Him
The semifinal. England lost to Argentina with Kane unable to influence the game, and Spain went on to lift the trophy. Voters have historically rewarded the player who defined the biggest tournament of the year, and that player was not Kane.
His own voting history is also a warning. He finished 13th in 2025 and 10th in 2024, seasons that included 44 goals and a European Championship final. Goal totals alone have never carried him. What is different this time is the scale of the numbers and the absence of a single dominant rival from a Champions League or World Cup winning side.
The Challengers
Lamine Yamal is a World Cup winner with Spain at 19 and the obvious threat if voters lean toward the summer over the club season. Kylian Mbappe remains the most bankable scorer in Spain and is never far from the conversation. Rodri, the 2024 winner, and Lionel Messi, who reached the World Cup final with Argentina, sit together further back. Khvicha Kvaratskhelia and Erling Haaland complete the group priced above one percent.
One Name to Ignore
Cristiano Ronaldo still shows in the market at around one percent. He is not on the 30 man shortlist, so that price is dead money. It will disappear as the market corrects.
How the Vote Works
One journalist from each of the top 100 nations in the FIFA rankings ranks their top ten from the shortlist. Points run from 15 for first place down to one for tenth, and the highest total wins. Ousmane Dembele is the holder after winning in 2025.
Related
Premier League winner odds · Champions League odds · Premier League standings · Premier League scores
The Bottom Line
Kane is a clear favorite on the back of 61 club goals and a domestic treble, with Yamal the main threat as a World Cup winner. The table above is the live market, refreshed every two minutes until the envelope is opened in London on October 26.