Buffalo at Houston is the closest game on the entire Week 1 board. Kickoff is 1 p.m. ET at NRG Stadium on CBS, the Bills are laying just 1.5, and the win probability model splits it 50.3 to 49.7.
What time is Bills vs Texans, and what channel?
Sunday, September 13 at 1 p.m. ET on CBS, carried regionally, with streaming on Paramount Plus. Out of market viewers need NFL Sunday Ticket.
The matchup
Both numbers say the same thing: this is a coin flip. The moneyline is priced at BUF -118 and HOU -102, which is about as close to even as a real NFL line gets, and the model has it inside a single percentage point. The Bills are one of the shorter Super Bowl prices in the league, so the market rating Houston this closely at home is a statement about the Texans.
Prediction and odds
Texans on the moneyline at -102. When a game is genuinely 50-50, taking the home dog at close to even money is better value than laying the hook with the favorite. The 44.5 total is modest and both defenses are good enough to keep it there, so lean under as well.
Our pick: Texans 23, Bills 20.
The bottom line
The most evenly matched game of the opening weekend, and probably the best early window game that is not on a national broadcast. Two AFC contenders with a real division and seeding stake in September.