| Rank | Name | Odds | Implied | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Darian Mensah | +669 | 13% | — |
| 2 | Arch Manning | +1,076 | 8.5% | ▼ 1 |
| 3 | CJ Carr | +1,076 | 8.5% | ▼ 2 |
| 4 | Jeremiah Smith | +1,438 | 6.5% | ▼ 2 |
| 5 | Julian Sayin | +1,438 | 6.5% | ▲ 1 |
| 6 | Sam Leavitt | +1,718 | 5.5% | ▼ 1 |
| 7 | Trinidad Chambliss | +1,718 | 5.5% | ▼ 3 |
| 8 | Dante Moore | +1,718 | 5.5% | ▲ 1 |
| 9 | Jayden Maiava | +1,718 | 5.5% | ▼ 1 |
| 10 | Malachi Toney | +1,718 | 5.5% | ▼ 1 |
Odds are the live price on Kalshi’s prediction market expressed as an American line, refreshed every two minutes; sportsbook prices will differ. Implied is the market’s probability. 24h is the move in percentage points since the previous day’s close.
The live top 10 above reprices every two minutes. CJ Carr entered the season as the Heisman favorite at +700 on DraftKings, a nose ahead of Arch Manning, and by Sunday morning he was second at +800 on BetMGM without having taken a snap, because Darian Mensah threw five touchdowns for Miami on Friday night. Carr plays Wisconsin at Lambeau Field on Sunday night, the last of the top contenders to open.
| Date | Game | Why it matters for his price |
|---|---|---|
| Sept. 6 | Wisconsin, Lambeau Field, NBC | A Sunday night national window with nothing else on. A big line here puts him back at the top by Monday |
| Oct. 10 | Stanford | Midseason volume game |
| Oct. 31 | Navy, Foxborough | A neutral site showcase two weeks before the decider |
| Nov. 7 | Miami | Carr against Mensah, the two favorites in one game, a rematch of the 2025 opener Miami won 27 to 24. The Heisman may be decided here |
| Nov. 14 | Boston College | Last home impression before the playoff |
The Case For Him
Carr set Notre Dame’s single season passer rating record (168.1) as a redshirt freshman, threw 24 touchdowns to six interceptions, and averaged 9.4 yards per attempt, second in the country. Notre Dame is a top five team with a schedule it can run through, and the award rewards a quarterback on a team still alive in December. The market opened him as the favorite for exactly that reason. His full profile is on CJ Carr.
The Case Against
He has one season of tape, the Miami game is a home rematch against the current favorite and the team that beat him in his first start, and Notre Dame’s exclusion from the 2025 playoff at 10 and 2 is a reminder that the committee does not owe the Irish anything. Preseason Heisman favorites also have a bad record: Manning collapsed to 40 to 1 by October a year ago. The full board and every mover is on Heisman odds.
The Bottom Line
CJ Carr is the second choice for the 2026 Heisman at about +800 entering Sunday night, behind Darian Mensah and ahead of Arch Manning. He was the favorite a week ago and can be again by Monday. The Miami game on November 7 is the one that decides it.