| Rank | Name | Odds | Implied | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jeremiah Smith | +308 | 25% | ▲ 16 |
| 2 | Darian Mensah | +335 | 23% | ▲ 5 |
| 3 | Jadan Baugh | +770 | 12% | ▲ 7 |
| 4 | Trinidad Chambliss | +953 | 9.5% | ▼ 12 |
| 5 | Kamario Taylor | +1,011 | 9.0% | ▼ 1 |
| 6 | CJ Carr | +1,438 | 6.5% | ▼ 1 |
| 7 | Gunner Stockton | +2,400 | 4.0% | ▼ 1 |
| 8 | Julian Sayin | +2,757 | 3.5% | ▲ 1 |
| 9 | Jayden Maiava | +2,757 | 3.5% | ▲ 2 |
| 10 | Keelon Russell | +2,757 | 3.5% | ▲ 1 |
| 11 | Arch Manning | +3,233 | 3.0% | ▼ 3 |
| 12 | Malachi Toney | +3,900 | 2.5% | ▼ 2 |
| 13 | Drew Mestemaker | +4,900 | 2.0% | — |
| 14 | Josh Hoover | +6,567 | 1.5% | ▼ 3 |
| 15 | Kevin Jennings | +6,567 | 1.5% | ▲ 1 |
Odds are the live price on Kalshi’s prediction market expressed as an American line, refreshed every two minutes; sportsbook prices will differ. Implied is the market’s probability. 24h is the move in percentage points since the previous day’s close.
What the Market Says Right Now
Trinidad Chambliss moved to the front of the conversation on Saturday night. The Ole Miss quarterback threw for 363 yards and two touchdowns and ran in the tiebreaking score in the fourth quarter as No. 8 Ole Miss beat No. 7 LSU 32-24 in Oxford, with College GameDay on campus and Lane Kiffin, the coach who recruited him out of Division II Ferris State, standing on the other sideline. LSU had wiped out a 24-7 halftime deficit before Chambliss answered with a 75 yard touchdown drive, and he did it after Kewan Lacy left with a shoulder injury. The market moved him up seven points in a day.
Darian Mensah still leads the market. Miami won 33-20 at Wake Forest on Friday night to reach 3-0, but the Hurricanes have not met anyone who tested them and the price drifted four points while Chambliss was winning the biggest game on the board. Mensah arrived from Duke as the highest paid quarterback in the sport, and the next month of the schedule decides whether that number was right.
Arch Manning has slipped to seventh. Texas handled UTSA 30-6 to stay unbeaten and hold the No. 1 ranking, but a comfortable win over a non conference opponent does nothing for a Heisman case and the market took six points off him. The fourth quarter comeback from 23-3 down against Ohio State is still the best argument on his résumé; he needs another one.
Two names below the top three are worth watching. Jeremiah Smith is up to third after Ohio State beat Kent State 59-3, which is rare air for a wide receiver in this market. Kamario Taylor sits fifth after Mississippi State won 41-34 at South Carolina, the kind of road result that keeps a sophomore in the picture.
How the Award Actually Works
| Who votes | 870 media members split across six regions, plus every living former winner and one fan vote |
| How they vote | Three names ranked, worth three, two and one point |
| When | Ballots go out in early December, before the playoff |
| Position bias | Quarterbacks dominate. Travis Hunter in 2024 was the first non-quarterback winner in years |
| Team record matters | Winners almost always come from playoff contenders, which is why a loss can cost more than a bad individual game |
Where to Follow the Race
Individual contender pages track each candidate’s case: Arch Manning and CJ Carr. Weekly results are on college football scores today, and our AP poll explainer covers the other weekly vote that shapes these odds.
The Bottom Line
The table above carries live Heisman odds and updates on its own, so it reflects Saturday’s results rather than a weekly hand typed refresh. Quarterbacks on playoff contenders win this award, which is why the top of the market moves with team results as much as individual numbers.