Updated Saturday, September 5, 2026, opening weekend. Odds are from DraftKings as of August 19 and Kalshi as of September 3, and will move after every game; this page refreshes weekly through December.
A year ago Arch Manning opened as the Heisman favorite and finished nowhere near New York. This year he opens as the second choice, a nose behind Notre Dame’s CJ Carr, and the market’s view of him is more interesting than the number: bettors have not given up on the name, but they have priced in the 2025 season.
| Player | Team | DraftKings (Aug. 19) | Kalshi (Sept. 3) |
|---|---|---|---|
| CJ Carr | Notre Dame | +700 | 12% |
| Arch Manning | Texas | +750 | 10% |
| Dante Moore | Oregon | +1100 | 9% |
| Darian Mensah | Miami | +1150 | 10% |
| Julian Sayin | Ohio State | +1200 | 7% |
| Trinidad Chambliss | Ole Miss | +1300 | 8% |
| Josh Hoover | Indiana | +1300 | |
| Jeremiah Smith | Ohio State | +1400 | 7% |
| Gunner Stockton | Georgia | +1900 | 3% |
| Sam Leavitt | LSU | +2000 |
Prices vary by book. FanDuel had Carr at +700 and Manning close behind entering the weekend; BetMGM reported Sayin, Carr and Manning as the only three players holding at least 10 percent of early ticket share.
Why He Is Second, Not First
Manning’s 2025 line as a first year starter was 3,163 passing yards, 26 touchdowns and 7 interceptions, with Texas finishing 7 and 1 down the stretch after a rough start and missing the College Football Playoff. That is a good season, not a Heisman season, and the market has moved him from favorite to co favorite territory accordingly. What keeps him this short is what has always kept him short: the biggest brand at the biggest program in the biggest football state, which matters for an award decided by voters.
Carr edges him because Notre Dame has a defense with three projected top 40 draft picks in the secondary and a schedule that could produce an undefeated regular season. Moore has been the mover, climbing from 6 percent to 9 percent on Kalshi in the week before the opener as the sport digested his decision to skip the NFL draft.
The Games That Move His Line
| Date | Game | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Sept. 5 | Texas State | Opener. Voters want efficiency and no early turnovers, not volume |
| Sept. 12 | vs. No. 1 Ohio State | A Heisman moment on the biggest stage of September, and a head to head with Sayin and Smith. Win big here and he is the favorite |
| Oct. 10 | vs. Oklahoma (Dallas) | The Red River game is the SEC’s most watched regular season window |
| Nov. 27 (Fri.) | at Texas A&M | Last regular season impression, alone in a national window on Black Friday |
| Dec. 5 | SEC Championship, Atlanta | Nearly every recent quarterback winner played on championship weekend |
How the Heisman Market Works
The odds are a popularity contest, not a projection: books set them by where the money goes, which is why Manning has been at or near the top for two straight preseasons. The Kalshi percentages are a purer read on probability, and there Manning, Mensah and Moore are effectively tied behind Carr. A single bad Saturday can double a price; a single signature win can halve it. The Ohio State game is both of those possibilities at once.
Full board for every contender is on our Heisman odds hub. His money situation, which is a separate conversation from his football one, is on Arch Manning NIL.
The Bottom Line
Arch Manning opens 2026 as the second choice for the Heisman at about +750, behind CJ Carr and a hair ahead of Dante Moore, Darian Mensah and Julian Sayin. He was the favorite a year ago and did not deliver; the market is giving him one more chance, and the Ohio State game on September 12 is where that chance is decided.