Picks for all 13 Sunday games and Monday night’s opener in Kansas City. Spreads are from bet365 as of Thursday and move through the weekend; check the Week 1 odds page for current numbers.
| Game | Spread | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Bears at Panthers | CHI -2.5 | Bears |
| Ravens at Colts | BAL -3.5 | Ravens |
| Falcons at Steelers | PIT -3.5 | Steelers |
| Buccaneers at Bengals | CIN -3.5 | Bengals |
| Bills at Texans | BUF -1.5 | Bills |
| Saints at Lions | DET -6.5 | Lions |
| Browns at Jaguars | JAX -8.5 | Jaguars |
| Jets at Titans | TEN -1.5 | Titans |
| Cardinals at Chargers | LAC -9.5 | Chargers |
| Packers at Vikings | MIN -1.5 | Packers |
| Dolphins at Raiders | LV -3.5 | Raiders |
| Commanders at Eagles | PHI -5.5 | Eagles |
| Cowboys at Giants | DAL -2.5 | Cowboys |
| Broncos at Chiefs (Monday) | KC -2.5 | Chiefs |
The Picks Worth Explaining
Falcons at Steelers. Atlanta is down to its third quarterback. Tua Tagovailoa hurt his oblique in Thursday’s practice and Michael Penix Jr. is not back from a torn ACL, so journeyman Cooper Rush starts in Kevin Stefanski’s Pittsburgh debut. A road opener with a quarterback who has been in the building for days is the easiest fade on the board.
Packers at Vikings. Minnesota is favored by a point and a half at home, which reads as a home-field number rather than a talent gap. Green Bay has two questionable offensive line starters, but this is close to a coin flip and the underdog is the better team on paper.
Cowboys at Giants. Malik Nabers is questionable as he returns from a torn ACL, and a New York passing game without him against a division opponent in primetime is a hard sell. If Nabers is active and playing a full role, this number is too high.
Dolphins at Raiders. Las Vegas loses Brock Bowers to a meniscus procedure, which trims the spread’s justification, but Ashton Jeanty is full go and Miami’s roster problems run deeper than one tight end.
Broncos at Chiefs. Patrick Mahomes is in line to start after last season’s ACL tear and Kansas City is only a 2.5 point home favorite in a division game, a sign the market is discounting his first game back. Left tackle Josh Simmons has not practiced, which is the real risk.
Injuries That Could Move These
Rome Odunze (calf) is questionable for Chicago but said he plans on playing. Alvin Kamara (knee) is questionable for New Orleans and unlikely to carry a full workload. Nabers is the biggest single swing. Full detail is on the Week 1 injury report.
Related
Week 1 odds · Sunday schedule and TV · Week 1 inactives · NFL standings
The Bottom Line
Twelve of these picks side with the favorite. The two exceptions are Green Bay at Minnesota, where the underdog is the stronger roster, and the read against Atlanta’s quarterback situation in Pittsburgh. Lines move through Sunday morning, so check the number before using any of it.