The Buffalo Bills are favored by 5.5 points over the Detroit Lions on Thursday Night Football at most books, with a few still holding 4.5, and the total sits at 54.5 to 55, the highest number on the Week 2 board. Kickoff is 8:15 p.m. ET on Prime Video from the new Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park.
Lions vs. Bills Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit Lions | +5.5 (-110) | +205 | Under 54.5 |
| Buffalo Bills | -5.5 (-110) | -245 | Over 54.5 |
Those are consensus numbers on game day, Thursday, Sept. 17. A few books still show Bills -4.5 and a total of 55, so shop before you bet. Lines move until kickoff.
Line Movement
This game opened at Bills -3 and has moved two and a half points toward Buffalo, through the key number of 3 and past it to 5.5 by Thursday. The moneyline followed, from about -160 to -245, which implies roughly a 71 percent chance of a Buffalo win, and the total climbed from 52.5 to 54.5 after both Week 1 games went over. The split depends on the book: DraftKings reports 80 percent of moneyline bets and 64 percent of spread bets on the Bills, while other books showed most spread tickets on Detroit earlier in the week. Either way, the number has moved with Buffalo the entire week.
Why Buffalo Is Favored
Josh Allen threw for 334 yards and two touchdowns and ran for two more in the 36-31 win at Houston, closing it with a late go ahead drive. Greg Rousseau had two sacks and two forced fumbles, including the strip sack that ended the game. Buffalo is also opening its new stadium in prime time, and the Lions will be without two starting offensive linemen: left guard Christian Mahogany and right tackle Blake Miller were both ruled out on Wednesday, with Larry Borom and Ben Bartch expected to fill in.
The Case for Detroit
Jahmyr Gibbs ran 29 times for 156 yards and two scores in the 31-30 overtime win over New Orleans, and a run heavy offense is the standard recipe for keeping a game inside a touchdown. Buffalo allowed 31 points and 7.9 yards per play to Houston. Buffalo is also 0-4 against the spread in its last four prime time games and 3-9 against the spread in its last 12 games following a win, two trends that favor the underdog here.
The Total
Both teams scored 31 or more in Week 1 and both defenses gave up 30 or more. Detroit allowed 410 passing yards to Tyler Shough; Buffalo allowed 381 yards to Houston. The Bills have scored 30 or more in 13 of their last 17 regular season home games. The one caution is that Detroit threw for only 206 yards on 39 attempts in the opener, so the Lions may not pile up points quickly even if Buffalo does.
Related
Lions vs. Bills how to watch · Injury report · Prediction · NFL Week 2 odds · NFL standings
The Bottom Line
Bills -5.5 at most books on game day, moneyline around -245, total 54.5 to 55. The line has moved toward Buffalo all week, and the Lions’ patched offensive line is the biggest reason.