| Rank | Name | Odds | Implied | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jeremiah Smith | +308 | 25% | ▲ 1 |
| 2 | Darian Mensah | +456 | 18% | — |
| 3 | Kamario Taylor | +506 | 17% | ▲ 3 |
| 4 | Trinidad Chambliss | +1,150 | 8.0% | — |
| 5 | Jadan Baugh | +1,150 | 8.0% | ▼ 1 |
| 6 | Keelon Russell | +1,233 | 7.5% | ▼ 1 |
| 7 | CJ Carr | +1,718 | 5.5% | ▼ 1 |
| 8 | Malachi Toney | +2,757 | 3.5% | ▼ 1 |
| 9 | Gunner Stockton | +3,900 | 2.5% | ▼ 1 |
| 10 | Arch Manning | +3,900 | 2.5% | ▲ 1 |
Odds are the live price on Kalshi’s prediction market expressed as an American line, refreshed every two minutes; sportsbook prices will differ. Implied is the market’s probability. 24h is the move in percentage points since the previous day’s close.
The live top 10 above reprices every two minutes. Florida running back Jadan Baugh crashed the Heisman board after carrying 29 times for 142 yards and three touchdowns in the Gators’ 52 to 28 rout of No. 4 Ole Miss. His price moved from about +6000 to +1000 to +1200 depending on the book, making him the only running back near the top of the market. Baugh has 600 rushing yards and 11 rushing touchdowns through four games, the most rushing touchdowns in the country.
His 2026 Season So Far
| Stat | 2026 |
|---|---|
| Carries | 83 |
| Rushing yards | 600 |
| Yards per carry | 7.2 |
| Rushing touchdowns | 11 (most in FBS) |
| 100 yard games | Five straight, dating to 2025 |
He opened with 160 yards and three touchdowns on just 14 carries against FAU, and his fifth straight 100 yard game against Ole Miss matched a streak only Emmitt Smith and Fred Taylor had reached at Florida. Full game logs are on Jadan Baugh stats.
How He Got Here
Baugh rushed for 673 yards and seven touchdowns as a freshman in 2024, then 1,170 yards in 2025 to become Florida’s first 1,000 yard rusher since Kelvin Taylor in 2015. He closed last season with 266 yards against Florida State, the second best single game in school history behind Emmitt Smith. Florida held off Texas and other programs to keep him out of the transfer portal this offseason.
The Case For and Against
For: he is the engine of a Florida team that just became a playoff contender, and his touchdown total is the kind of number voters notice. Against: running backs rarely win the award now, and he splits some work with Duke Clark, who added 126 yards against Ole Miss. Big games at Missouri and in the rest of the SEC schedule will decide whether he stays in the race.
The Bottom Line
Jadan Baugh is about +1000 to +1200 for the Heisman after Week 4, the only running back in the top six, with a nation leading 11 rushing touchdowns. His next test is at Missouri on Saturday. The full board is on Heisman odds, and the game is on the Florida vs. Missouri page.