Naomi Osaka plays Elena Rybakina in the fourth round of the 2026 US Open on Monday, a round of 16 match between a four time major champion and the world No. 2 who is two wins from the top ranking. It is scheduled for no earlier than 2:30 p.m. ET on Louis Armstrong Stadium, the third match of the day on that court, and it airs on ESPN.
What time is Osaka vs Rybakina, and what channel is it on?
The match is scheduled for no earlier than 2:30 p.m. ET on Monday, September 7, on Louis Armstrong Stadium. It is third on that court, behind Mirra Andreeva against Anastasia Potapova at 11 a.m. and a women’s doubles match, so 2:30 is a floor rather than a start time. If the two matches ahead of it go long, this one waits.
ESPN has exclusive United States rights to the US Open. Monday’s daytime coverage runs from 11 a.m. to 6 p.m. ET on ESPN, which is the window this match falls into, with Spanish commentary on ESPN Deportes. The 7 p.m. Primetime block moves to ESPN2 on Monday. Every match from all 16 courts streams on the ESPN app for anyone with an ESPN Unlimited plan, so the Armstrong feed is available there whatever the main channel is showing.
Armstrong has a roof, so weather will not move this one.
Rybakina is two wins from the No. 1 ranking
This is the real stake. Rybakina reaches world No. 1 for the first time if she makes the semifinals here, and that holds regardless of what Aryna Sabalenka, Coco Gauff or Jessica Pegula do. Every other contender needs help. Her career high is No. 2, first reached in March 2026.
She has earned the position. Rybakina is 45-13 on the season and 32-7 on hard courts, won the Australian Open in January for her second major, and reached the semifinals at both Indian Wells and Miami. Her serve has been better than her career norm all year, averaging about seven aces a match. She has not dropped a set in New York, beating Yuliia Starodubtseva 7-6(6), 6-3 in the third round to avenge a French Open loss to the same player.
The odd wrinkle is that for all of that, the US Open has been her worst major. She has never been past the fourth round at Flushing Meadows, so a win Monday would be a career first here.
Osaka has been here before, and has had to grind
Osaka is a two time champion at this tournament, in 2018 and 2020, and a four time major winner overall. She is ranked No. 13 and 28-10 on the season, with a semifinal in Bad Homburg as her best result of 2026.
Her route to the fourth round has been considerably harder than Rybakina’s. She needed two tiebreaks to get past Anastasia Zakharova, three sets to beat Katerina Siniakova, and two hours and 38 minutes to see off Elise Mertens 6-3, 3-6, 7-5 on Saturday night after falling behind 4-2 in the deciding set. She hit 50 winners in that match and landed 58 percent of her first serves.
Two numbers frame the matchup from her side. She has won four of her last five round of 16 matches at majors, which is the reason nobody is treating this as a formality. She is also 2-7 against top 10 opponents over the past 12 months, which is the reason she is the underdog. She has been managing an Achilles problem that dates to the grass court season.
Head to head
They have met once, and it was recent. In the Toronto quarterfinals on August 11, Rybakina came back from a set and a break down to win 4-6, 7-6(5), 6-4. That was on a hard court, weeks ago, and it is the single most useful piece of evidence available for Monday.
Rybakina retired with an injury in Cincinnati shortly afterward, which is worth holding in mind before treating that Toronto result as the settled order of things.
Prediction
Rybakina in three. Both of these players win the majority of their service games and neither returns well enough to break the other repeatedly, which points at long sets and tiebreaks. Rybakina holds the edge on the underlying numbers, including a clear gap in hard court Elo, and she is the fresher of the two after three straight set wins. The counterweight is that Osaka is the stronger tiebreak player and has the experience of closing out big matches on this court. Expect sets decided by a single break or a breaker, and expect Rybakina to win two of three.
The bottom line
Osaka against Rybakina is the best matchup left in the bottom half of the women’s draw, and it starts no earlier than 2:30 p.m. ET Monday on Armstrong, on ESPN. Rybakina is the favorite, the better player on 2026 form, and two wins from the world No. 1 ranking. Osaka is the one with two trophies from this building. The winner plays Zheng Qinwen in Wednesday’s quarterfinal; Zheng knocked out Iga Swiatek on Monday.