The Chicago Bears have the hardest schedule in the NFL this season and the Cleveland Browns have the easiest. Chicago’s 17 opponents went a combined 158-129-2 last year, a .550 winning percentage. Cleveland’s went 124-165, or .429. That gap is the widest in the league and it is worth more than most people assume.
| Rank | Team | Opponents' 2025 record | Win pct. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bears | 158-129-2 | .550 |
| 2 | Dolphins | 156-132-1 | .542 |
| T-3 | Cardinals | 155-133-1 | .538 |
| T-3 | Packers | 155-133-1 | .538 |
| 5 | Chiefs | 155-134 | .536 |
| 6 | Patriots | 153-135-1 | .531 |
| 7 | Raiders | 153-136 | .529 |
| 8 | Bills | 152-136-1 | .528 |
| 9 | Chargers | 151-138 | .522 |
| 10 | Panthers | 150-138-1 | .521 |
| 11 | Vikings | 149-138-2 | .519 |
| 12 | Jets | 149-139-1 | .517 |
| 13 | Rams | 148-139-2 | .516 |
| 14 | Seahawks | 148-140-1 | .514 |
| 15 | Broncos | 148-141 | .512 |
| 16 | Commanders | 144-143-2 | .502 |
| 17 | Giants | 143-144-2 | .498 |
| 18 | 49ers | 143-145-1 | .497 |
| 19 | Steelers | 143-146 | .495 |
| 20 | Cowboys | 142-146-1 | .493 |
| 21 | Buccaneers | 141-146-2 | .491 |
| 22 | Jaguars | 141-147-1 | .490 |
| 23 | Eagles | 138-149-2 | .481 |
| 24 | Ravens | 138-150-1 | .479 |
| 25 | Titans | 137-151-1 | .476 |
| 26 | Texans | 136-151-2 | .474 |
| 27 | Lions | 134-153-2 | .467 |
| T-28 | Falcons | 134-154-1 | .465 |
| T-28 | Colts | 134-154-1 | .465 |
| 30 | Bengals | 130-159 | .450 |
| 31 | Saints | 125-163-1 | .434 |
| 32 | Browns | 124-165 | .429 |
How Strength of Schedule Is Calculated
It is the combined winning percentage of all 17 opponents from the previous season. Nothing more complicated than that. Every team plays six division games, four against another division in its own conference, four against a division in the other conference, two intra-conference games matched by last year’s finish, and one interconference game matched the same way.
That last part is where the difficulty really comes from. Since the league went to 17 games in 2021, a first place team plays five other first place teams, so a division winner almost never draws an easy slate.
Why the Bears Are in Trouble
Two things stacked against Chicago. Every team in the NFC North finished 2025 with a winning record, which has happened only twice in the Super Bowl era, and the Bears won the division at 11-6, so they also drew a first place schedule.
The history there is unkind. Since 2021, the team saddled with the hardest first place schedule has regressed by an average of four games. Last year that team was Detroit, which went 15-2 in 2024 and then fell to 9-8.
Why the Browns Might Surprise
The AFC team with the easiest schedule has finished with a winning record in eight straight seasons, and the last three all had a first year head coach:
- 2023 Texans: 3-13-1 to 10-7 under DeMeco Ryans
- 2024 Chargers: 5-12 to 11-6 under Jim Harbaugh
- 2025 Patriots: 4-13 to 14-3 under Mike Vrabel, and a run to the Super Bowl
Cleveland has a new head coach in Todd Monken and gets both the AFC South and NFC South. That draw has been worth a lot lately. The Seahawks went 7-1 against those two divisions last season on the way to the No. 1 NFC seed and the title, and the 49ers had the easiest schedule in 2025 and jumped from 6-11 to 12-5.
New Orleans sits 31st and is the other team worth watching. In seven of the past nine years, at least one team with a bottom two schedule has made the playoffs.
The Eagles Got the Gift
Philadelphia is 23rd overall, but the more useful number is that it has the easiest schedule of the eight teams playing a first place slate. Every team in that spot since 2021 has finished with a winning record, averaging 10.6 wins. The Eagles are trying to win a third straight NFC East title after becoming the first team in 21 years to go back to back.
One Caveat Worth Knowing
This method uses last season’s records, and rosters change. Models built on Vegas win totals rather than last year’s results produce a different order entirely, with Detroit rated easiest and Arizona hardest. Both are defensible. Last year’s records tell you who your opponents were; projected win totals try to tell you who they will be.
The Bottom Line
Bears hardest at .550, Browns easiest at .429, and the four teams in between the extremes worth watching are Cleveland and New Orleans at the bottom of the difficulty list and Chicago and Miami at the top. Schedule strength is not destiny, but the pattern of easy AFC schedules producing bounce back seasons is now eight years long.