Odds to make the College Football Playoff
| Rank | Name | Odds | Implied | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Notre Dame | -545 | 85% | ▲ 8 |
| 2 | Miami (FL) | -376 | 79% | ▲ 5 |
| 3 | Georgia | -355 | 78% | ▲ 4 |
| 4 | Ohio St. | -317 | 76% | ▼ 5 |
| 5 | Indiana | -264 | 73% | ▲ 3 |
| 6 | Oregon | -208 | 68% | ▼ 2 |
| 7 | Texas | -199 | 67% | ▲ 4 |
| 8 | Texas Tech | -167 | 63% | ▼ 4 |
| 9 | LSU | -106 | 52% | ▼ 11 |
| 10 | Oklahoma | +138 | 42% | ▼ 5 |
| 11 | USC | +160 | 39% | ▼ 2 |
| 12 | Texas A&M | +160 | 39% | ▲ 7 |
Odds are the live price on Kalshi’s prediction market expressed as an American line, refreshed every two minutes; sportsbook prices will differ. Implied is the market’s probability. 24h is the move in percentage points since the previous day’s close.
Odds to win the national championship
| Rank | Name | Odds | Implied | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ohio St. | +700 | 13% | ▲ 1 |
| 2 | Notre Dame | +733 | 12% | ▼ 1 |
| 3 | Texas | +770 | 12% | ▲ 1 |
| 4 | LSU | +809 | 11% | ▲ 1 |
| 5 | Miami (FL) | +953 | 9.5% | ▲ 1 |
| 6 | Indiana | +953 | 9.5% | ▼ 2 |
| 7 | Oregon | +953 | 9.5% | ▼ 1 |
| 8 | Georgia | +1,076 | 8.5% | ▼ 1 |
| 9 | Texas Tech | +2,757 | 3.5% | ▲ 1 |
| 10 | Oklahoma | +2,757 | 3.5% | ▼ 1 |
| 11 | Alabama | +3,900 | 2.5% | ▼ 2 |
| 12 | USC | +3,900 | 2.5% | ▲ 1 |
Odds are the live price on Kalshi’s prediction market expressed as an American line, refreshed every two minutes; sportsbook prices will differ. Implied is the market’s probability. 24h is the move in percentage points since the previous day’s close.
The Independent’s Path
Notre Dame cannot win a conference title, so it cannot earn one of the five automatic bids; it has to be one of the seven highest ranked at large teams. Under the straight seeding rules adopted in 2025, the top four seeds and first round byes go to the four highest ranked teams regardless of conference, so an independent can get a bye. The catch is the margin: in 2025 a 10 and 2 Notre Dame with losses by a combined four points was left out, which is why the market treats every Irish loss as worth more than a loss by a conference team with a title game to play. Two losses is the line; one loss is safe; zero puts them in the top four.
The Games That Move the Number
| Sept. 6 | Wisconsin at Lambeau Field. A 20 point favorite; a loss would be a Northern Illinois level shock |
| Oct. 10 | Stanford |
| Oct. 31 | Navy at Gillette Stadium |
| Nov. 7 | Miami. The game that decides the seed, the Heisman and probably the ACC’s at large picture |
| Nov. 14 | Boston College, the last home game |
Full schedule and results on Notre Dame football score.
Related
Full playoff odds · Full national championship odds · CJ Carr Heisman odds · Why is Notre Dame independent · Marcus Freeman
The Bottom Line
Notre Dame opened 2026 priced around 79 percent to make the College Football Playoff and among the leading title contenders. The tables above reprice every two minutes; the November 7 Miami game is the one that moves them most.