College Football Predictions Week 1: Picks and Spreads for Every Big Game This Weekend

Updated Friday, September 4, 2026. Lines are from DraftKings as of Friday and move before kickoff. This page is refreshed every week.

Two underdogs already cashed before Saturday arrived. UMass walked into Rutgers as a 28.5 point underdog on Thursday and won 37-21, and Colorado, a 6.5 point dog at Georgia Tech, blocked a walk off field goal try to win 14-13. Opening weekend is when the market knows the least, and the rest of the slate has plenty of spots where it could be wrong again.

WEEK 1 PICKS
Saturday, September 5
Spread, total, and our pick for each game
Game (ET) Spread Total Our pick
East Carolina at No. 13 Alabama, noon ABC Alabama -27.5 Alabama covers
North Texas at No. 6 Indiana, noon FOX Indiana -40.5 56.5 Indiana wins, North Texas covers
Oregon State at No. 23 Houston, noon ESPN Houston -20.5 Houston covers
Ball State at No. 1 Ohio State, 12:30 BTN Ohio State -50.5 56.5 Ohio State wins, under
Boise State at No. 2 Oregon, 3:30 CBS Oregon -24.5 51.5 Oregon wins, Boise State covers, under
Baylor vs. Auburn (Atlanta), 3:30 ABC Auburn -7.5 58.5 Auburn wins, Baylor covers
Texas State at No. 5 Texas, 3:30 ESPN Texas -29.5 59.5 Texas covers
Marshall at No. 18 Penn State, 3:30 FS1 Penn State -23.5 52.5 Penn State covers
Boston College at Cincinnati, 3:30 FOX Cincinnati -7.5 Cincinnati covers
Tulane at Duke, 3:30 ACCN Check book Duke
Wyoming at Colorado State, 6:00 USA Colorado State -3.5 Wyoming outright
Clemson at No. 11 LSU, 7:30 ABC LSU -10.5 50.5 LSU wins, Clemson covers, under
Western Michigan at No. 16 Michigan, 7:30 NBC Michigan -27.5 Michigan wins, Western Michigan covers
Florida Atlantic at Florida, 7:45 SECN Florida -27.5 Florida wins, FAU covers
UCLA at California, 10:30 ESPN Cal -1.5 53.5 Cal

Sunday and Monday

Game (ET) Spread Total Our pick
Washington State at No. 17 Washington, Sun 4:00 NBC Washington -23.5 50.5 Washington covers
Wisconsin vs. No. 4 Notre Dame (Lambeau Field), Sun 7:30 NBC Notre Dame -20.5 46.5 Notre Dame covers
Louisville vs. No. 9 Ole Miss (Nashville), Sun 7:30 ABC Ole Miss -7 Ole Miss wins, Louisville covers
No. 19 SMU at Florida State, Mon 7:30 ESPN Check book SMU

The Reasoning on the Big Ones

Clemson at LSU. LSU won this game 17-10 in Death Valley last year with a far less talented roster, and now Lane Kiffin has Sam Leavitt at quarterback and the home crowd. The number has bounced between 9.5 and 12.5 since July, and early spread money is on LSU while ticket count is split. Clemson is starting Christopher Vizzina for the first time and is unranked for the first time since 2011, but Dabo Swinney’s defense is still good enough to keep a first-game-together LSU offense under 30. LSU wins, Clemson stays inside 10.5, and the total goes under 50.5, where 80 percent of early bets already sit.

Boise State at Oregon. Boise State is 4-0 against the spread in the last four meetings and leads the series 3-1. Oregon returns Heisman candidate Dante Moore and went 13-2, so the win is not in question. But 24.5 is steep against a three-time defending Mountain West champion with an experienced quarterback in Maddux Madsen, and the under has hit in five straight Boise State road games.

Baylor vs. Auburn. Auburn beat Baylor 38-24 in last year’s opener and Alex Golesh’s debut comes in Atlanta, effectively a home crowd. Baylor is 5-1 ATS in its last six neutral site games as an underdog and Dave Aranda’s teams tend to keep openers close. Auburn wins a shootout that lands near the total; Baylor covers.

Western Michigan at Michigan. First game for Kyle Whittingham in Ann Arbor. His Utah teams were built on defense and a run game, which means fewer possessions and fewer blowouts. The under is 4-0 in Michigan’s last four home games. Michigan wins comfortably without covering four touchdowns.

Wyoming at Colorado State. The pick against the number. Wyoming shut out Colorado State 28-0 last year and leads the Bronze Boot era 32-26. Colorado State is playing its first game as a Pac-12 member under Jim Mora and is laying 3.5 at home. Take the Cowboys outright.

Upset Alerts

Beyond Wyoming, the spots where a favorite is most exposed: North Texas at Indiana (a 12-win team catching 40.5), Boston College at Cincinnati (Cincinnati has a transfer quarterback and a new defensive coordinator), and Louisville vs. Ole Miss on Sunday (Louisville won 41-0 in its finale and Ole Miss is playing its first game under a new coach after Kiffin left). We track them on our Week 1 upsets page as results come in.

The Bottom Line

Favorites win the marquee games but the market is asking too much of several of them. Our leans: Clemson, Boise State, Baylor and Western Michigan to cover as underdogs, Wyoming outright, and unders in Baton Rouge and Eugene. Scores are on our live scoreboard throughout Saturday. Lines move; always check your book before kickoff. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.